All business related with the agricultural machinery industry is worth repeating!
All business related with the agriculturalmachinery industry is worth repeating!
The coronavirus divides the world historyinto two distinct times: the before and the after of the coronavirus! The coronavirusis like a big black swan. It has hit and subverted many industries，of course includes agricultural field.At present, black swan is becoming a gray rhinoceros, which challenge to foodsecurity all over the world. China's food security has already paid highattention by government, and the production tools and productivity are mutuallyinfluenced, China's agricultural machinery industry is facing unprecedenteddevelopment opportunities.
Agricultural machinery industry, “now, allbusiness is worth repeating”, But the essence of business has begun to change,and the industry is still that industry. However, different people will maketotally different results with different business models. For example, plantprotection drones have created billions of hardware markets and tens of billionoperation service markets, which instead of ground plant protection machinery.
Why do you do it again? I think it is to recheckthe requirements, recognize users, find the way to cause great changes in theindustry and match the corresponding business model, so that we can do thebusiness again in a new way.
After deep thinking and systematicanalysis, the author thinks that there are at least the following businesses inthe agricultural machinery industry that have the value and possibility ofdoing it again.
1、 The opportunity of traditional agricultural machinery consumptionclassification
The consumption end of agriculturalmachinery is becoming more and more colorful. Under the guidance and promotionof agricultural machinery subsidy policy, the demand of agricultural machinerypresents more obvious differentiation, classification and stratificationcharacteristics. We call all these as the consumption classification ofagricultural machinery.
On the one hand, the state promotes themoderate development of agriculture, on the other hand, it is the"integration into zero" after the reform of corps and agriculturalreclamation system.
On the one hand, the agricultural machineryin plain area is saturated and demand is upgraded, on the other hand, themechanization of hilly and mountainous areas is in the ascendant.
On the one hand, the consumption ofindividual farmers is slack, on the other hand, the organizational users andagricultural services, agricultural social service organizations are growingand stronger.
Traditional agricultural machinery such astractor, combine harvester, transplanter and agricultural machinery isundergoing a deep process of consumption classification, which is manifested indifferentiation, classification and stratification.
Differentiation creates opportunities fordemand diversity, creates structural opportunities by classification, andincreases the levels and diversity of demand by stratification.
It is still that agricultural machinerymarket, but the demand is rich and full, all businesses are worth doing again,but the opportunities and connotation of business are not the same.
2、 The opportunity of the new market surpassing the old market
Surplus is the twin brother of the marketeconomy, just as the day must be after night. As the time goes by, the demandof the old market gradually saturated, and the competition mainly refers to theredistribution of the stock resources. The opportunities of the industry havenot increased. What is increased is the internal consumption of the industry.However, the "disaster comes from the blessing, and the disaster is thebasis of the blessing". The other is "the sails on the side of thesinking boat and the first ten thousand trees in front of the sick tree".The destruction of the old world must be accompanied by the beginning of thenew world, and the agricultural machinery industry is the same, On the onehand, the passing of the old market opportunities, on the other hand, thegrowth of new market opportunities.
For example, the business in agriculturalmachinery parts industry is worth repeating. The first big opportunity foragricultural machinery parts industry is the new machine production in theincremental market stage from 2004 to 2018. Before 2018, the supply of newmachines is in short supply. All parts enterprises are looking at the hostusers, and the highest pursuit of parts enterprises is to be able to providesupporting facilities for johndir, jiubaotian and Dongfanghong, Coorperating enterprisesindicates that they will get on the fortune.
After 2018, the traditional agriculturalmachinery gradually saturated, new parts enterprises are becoming more and more,stable cooperation relationship is broken, the price system of the industry isbroken, and the parts industry get little profit. "God closed a door andopened a window". The opportunity of the market of agricultural machinerywas opened, and the quantity accumulated to a certain extent would change,After reaching the singularity, the commercial space of the market will surpassthe former market.
The agricultural machinery markets in Europe, the United States andJapan is mature, the profit ratio is 3:7or 4:6. In the lifetime of agricultural machinery, the value of the new marketis higher than that of the old market. With new market coming. The second hand machinerytrading, agricultural machinery overhaul, agricultural machinery remanufacturing,transformation, finance, insurance and other opportunities come in a largenumber of opportunities, which are also parts,the new market will be a newopportunity, At present, several major agricultural machinery parts enterprisesare planning to enter the new market, and it is broad and promising.
3、 Intelligence will create new track and opportunity of transformingtraditional agricultural machinery
Intelligent age of agricultural machinery iscoming. 2020 is called the first year of unmanned agricultural machinery. Manyunmanned farms in Shanghai, Jiamusi and Suzhou are established.
Compared with the construction machineryand automobile industry, the driving, operation and passenger drivers ofagricultural machinery are more scarce, so the intelligent agriculturalmachinery is more urgent. In addition, the rural areas are widely populated andit is safer for intelligent agricultural machinery to apply. Therefore,automatic navigation and unmanned agricultural machinery are easier to promote,and unmanned agricultural machinery may be popularized earlier than unmannedvehicles and construction machinery.
Intelligent is a new technology, whichincludes information technology, automatic driving technology and unmanneddriving technology.
The intelligent is to the agriculturalmachinery industry, one is to transform the traditional agricultural machinery,the second is to subvert the traditional agricultural machinery, the third isto create new demand, and the fourth is to create a new track.
To transform the traditional agriculturalmachinery. For example, the auxiliary driving or unmanned transplanter,compared with the general transplanter, is to improve the efficiency ofoperation, and data showing that it can be improved by more than 30%; Second,conserveland and increase production,the former can achieve 10-15% and the latter canincrease the yield by 10% - 20%; Third, saving manpower, assisting drivingtransplanter can reduce at least one person who operates the seedling tray. Ifit can solve the problem of automatic seedling plate, unmanned transplanter cansave 3-4 labor, which is of great significance for lacking labor force.
Subvert traditional agricultural machinery.The most convincing product is still unmanned aerial vehicle which for theplant protection. In fact, it can reach the level of L4 unmanned drivingtechnology, and the intelligent level has exceeded the L4 level automobile.
The greatest value of the plant protectiondrone is the replacement and subversion of the ground plant protectionmachinery. The domestic ground plant protection machinery is 30 years behindthe United States and Europe. The value of large equipment imported into China fromEurope and America, such as younia, Hadi and mazotti, is more than one million.Domestic users are very difficult to afford it, and the efficiency of the plantprotection drone exceeds the imported large equipment, but price is only onetenth ,so it is outstanding. Therefore, the plant protection drone subverts thesituation of traditional ground machinery, and replaces the domestic andimported plant protection machinery in a large scale. At present, the demandfor ground plant protection machinery has shrunk about 50%.
Create a new track. domestic agriculturalmachinery has been calling for overtaking on the bend, but the premise is thatthe agricultural machinery industry in foreign countries is stagnant orbackward. In fact, the agricultural machinery industry in Europe, America,Japan and South Korea is developing rapidly on a higher way, but the domestic machineryis still in low-tech level just survive on government policy, so the China’sagricultural machinery needs to replace a new track or create a new track.
In the intelligent age, domesticagricultural machinery has no historical burden and will not fall into thedilemma of "innovators". Therefore, domestic agricultural machineryhas created a new track for itself. The first to achieve the global leading isplant protection drones. At present, the plant protection drones about dajiangand jifei have all led the Japanese, American and European counterparts, it hasbecome a business card of domestic agricultural machinery, which represents thehighest level and industrial advantage of domestic agricultural machinery; Thesecond one is the domestic automatic navigation, unmanned driving technology,equipment and agricultural machinery which have the advantages to develop theglobal market. The domestic automatic navigation technology has already beenahead of the technology of John deer, topcom, Tianbao, gecko and othercompanies. In the intelligent age, domestic enterprises have more pioneeringspirit and quick action, so the technology and equipment are ahead of domesticmanufacturers.
So the new intelligent technology canempower the traditional agricultural machinery equipment. It changes not onlythe appearance and function of the products, but also the whole industrialchain; Intelligent agricultural machinery attracts a large number of newfarmers. New farmers are rising in a new class. The new peasant class bringsnot only the demand for a product function or a new category, but also thechange of the whole social production organization and agricultural mode.Therefore, the agricultural machinery industry is still the agriculturalmachinery industry, but the new players join, game players and rules willchange completely.
4、 Capital goes to the countryside and capital is farming
The most important feature of capital isthe drive of profit. Capital quoted a saying: capital fears that there is noprofit or too little profit. As soon as there is a proper profit, capital willbe very bold. As long as there is 10% of the profit, it will be usedeverywhere; 20% will be lively; 50% will lead to positive risk-taking; 100%will make people desperate for the law; 300% will make people not afraid ofcrime or even the risk of hanging.
For a long time, one of the main reasonsfor the slow development of domestic agricultural machinery industry is theshortage of funds and the lack of large capital. The reason hided is that theagricultural investment cycle is long-term and risk is large but the profit is little.However, after the coronavirus, the state has obviously increased the financialsupporting on agriculture, the growth of agriculture and the increasing ofprofit, and a new round of capital investment upsurge in the agriculturalfield, Of course, the agricultural machinery industry is also included.
The second high tide of agriculturalmachinery industry listing is coming. The last time was from 2008 to 2012, withYituo back to A shares, new research shares and Jifeng agricultural machinerybegan, and Xingguang agricultural machinery over;In 2020, agriculturalmachinery parts company Zhenghe Insustry has been successfully issued. Wodeagricultural machinery and Chongqing Weima formally submitted the listingapplication. The application of boshiran in Xinjiang had been returned. Ifthere is no accident, vode and Weima will officially ring the bell in 2021. Inaddition, there are also intelligent and high-tech agricultural machineryenterprises, such as Shanghai Lianda, Huida, Jifei technology, Xinjianginnovation, fengjiang intelligence, geek technology and southern developmentare all planning to list. The second listing of agricultural machinery industryis coming.
The combination of capital and industry notonly provides valuable development funds and liquidity for the traditionalagricultural machinery industry, but also uses capital and latest technologyand business model to transform traditional industries.
5、 The barbarians at the door are knocking at the door
Backward will be replaced by advanced onesand conservatives will be radical. Internet and information technology areundergoing a thorough transformation of traditional industries, this time isthe power of super technology and capital.
The plant protection unmanned aerialvehicle mentioned in the previous article, the advanced enterprise, Dajianginnovation technology, has transformed the traditional plant protectionmachinery industry with new technology, which not only replaces the marketshare of ground machinery in a large area, but also attracts hundreds ofthousands of new farmers to enter, and innovates new users and new demands, andnot only ground plant protection machinery, but also the unmanned aerialvehicle is on the way to rice transplanter, rice direct seeding machine,seeder, transport vehicle, baiting machine, including tractor, are rapidlyreplaced, which is called cross-border competition and "barbarian at thedoor".
In addition, the advanced enterprises ofreal estate, construction machinery and e-commerce industries such asBiguiyuan, Xugong, Sanyi Heavy Industry and Jingdong also want to enter theagricultural machinery industry, but they have not found the track suitable forthem. According to the information I have learned, Biguiyuan and XCMG willenter into the agricultural machinery industry from the field of rice combine harvesterand tractor.
It is expected that more barbarians willknock at the door in the future. The cross-border big companies will enter theagricultural machinery industry, not to help the poor or to do charity. Theywill take advantage of capital and technology, and use super technology and newbusiness model to attact the traditional agricultural machinery enterprises hugely.At present, domestic agricultural machinery enterprises are very difficult tocomplete the shuffling of the industry, But foreign John deer, kessnewNetherlands are not interested in the integration of China’s agriculturalmachinery industry, so it is very likely that the barbarians at the door cancomplete the integration and shuffling of domestic agricultural machineryindustry.、
6、 The second shift of agricultural machinery industry to China
On the one hand, the corovavirus is stillspreading. In March 2021, the number of global infections exceeded the 16 million,and the number of global infections was still increasing at the rate of250000-280000 per day. Therefore, the corovavirus is likely to deteriorate andnormalize in some areas. China has become the global Noah Ark and China becomesa global capital haven.
It is expected that agricultural machineryindustry in developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japanwill again transfer to China in large scale in the next few years, and thesecond transfer climax of agricultural machinery industry will also be usheredin China.
This time, the domestic companies can getthe latest technology, complete industrial chain, comparing with last time,will have essential differences. If with national policy coordinated, measures are appropriate,China's agricultural machinery industry will be truly upgraded and global leading.
China will become a real stronger agriculturalmachinery manufacturing than a large agricultural machinery manufacturingcountry. With the large market and the powerful agricultural machinery andequipment industry, based on the domestic market, China will truly grow up tobe a large group with global competitiveness, such as John deer, keshnuNetherlands and jiubaotian, But these enterprises are not only traditionalagricultural machinery enterprises with tractors and combine harvesters astheir main industries, but also may be the one such as Dajiang, Jifei,fengjiang intelligence , agricultural machinery transformation with intelligenttechnology and new business model.
Practitioners in agricultural industry needto master a principle. Agriculture is in a trend that is contrary to thenational and global macro-economic environment and trend. That is, theinternational and domestic environment will be favorable, agriculture will notbe ignored but will not be paid special attention. Once the international anddomestic environment is turbulent or disaster and uncertainty increases, Theinternational community and the country will attach importance to agriculturalproduction. At present, all countries in the world have paid unprecedentedattention to agricultural production and agricultural related industries.Agricultural machinery industry is facing unprecedented developmentenvironment. Under the background, all businesses in agricultural machineryindustry should be repeating in the next 10 years, but in the new period, weshould use new ideas, methods and ways to realize it.