Top 10 forecasts for agricultural machinery industry in 2021
Top 10 forecasts for agricultural machineryindustry in 2021
2021, destined to be extraordinary.
2021 is not only the starting year of the"14th five year plan" ， the well-off societywas fully reached, but also the first year after the 100th anniversary of thefounding of the Communist Party of China and the full containment of the epidemicin 2020. It is of great significance.
In 2021, it will continue to stabilize.
In 2021, facing theincreasing downward pressure on the international economy，it is foreseeable that the overall tone of development of China willstill be "steady and strive for progress", and it can be concludedthat China's commercial society will emerge many dazzling "smallfires" and is surprising.
Focus on the agricultural machineryindustry, it’s important how to expand the advantages, make up for thedeficiencies and promote the sustainable progress of the industry comparing thegrowth in 2020.
01 it’s the right time to speed upinnovation, make up for the shortage
2021 will still be an important year forthe agricultural machinery industry to make up the shortage. Scientific andtechnological innovation is becoming a common topic and a major direction ofsocial progress. People live in continuous innovation. In recent years,agricultural machinery industry has also been rapidly advancing in innovation.High-end products such as domestic cotton harvester, sugarcane harvester, largeanimal husbandry machinery and large baler have achieved huge progress.Moreover, high-power tractor, combined harvesting machine, economic cropoperation machinery and precision seeder are much more intelligent, unmanneddriving, AI technology, navigation system, data analysis, Internet platform,etc. all have pushed the development for agricultural machinery industry.
However, we must also be aware that thereare still insufficient for R & D investment in key technology areas.According to statistics, Our investment in core, high-tech and basic R & D isonly 5% of the total R & D cost, which is far lower than 20% of thedeveloped countries. The phenomenon of "neck clashing" is common. Thereare many barriers in the core technology field of agricultural machineryindustry in China, For example, suspension chassis technology, CVT system,silage and silk kneading technology, and at the same time, many core componentspower shift transmission system, seed clip of no tillage precision seeder, andD-type knotter of baler are heavily dependent on import. Moreover, there is ahuge gap between high-end CNC machine tools for mechanical processing andintelligent operating system. Scientific and technological innovation is stillpromising!
02 quality growth, steady and low speed
Looking back 2020, the global economy decreaseddue to the epidemic, China, with scientific and accurate prevention andcontrol, took the lead in curbing the spread of the epidemic, and promotedeconomic development, and became the only major economy in the world to achievepositive economic growth. In 2021, the big cycle strategy with "deepexploration of consumption potential" as the main focus will be furtherpromoted, and the new development pattern will be better .All of these willexperience a different test for the agricultural machinery industry in theperiod of deep transformation and upgrading.
As a whole, in 2021, the agriculturalmachinery industry is still in the industrial adjustment stage. The traditionalproduct stock competition is the low-speed, and the demand of emerging productsis in high speed. However, the gap between the two determines the industrialdevelopment form. The industry call it"empty window period", which isa process that lasts several years, more than ten years or even longer, Theagricultural machinery industry will continue to increase its quality, which isusually called that "speed is down and quality is raised". The competitivenessof domestic agricultural machinery industry has accumulated and improvedconstantly. Low speed, high efficiency and stable will become the normal situationof the industry in recent years.
03 the industry shuffled and "thereckless" out of this industry
Tracing back the development ofagricultural machinery industry, we call it "golden decade" which theimplementation of the national subsidy policy for agricultural machinerypurchase in 2004. During the period, the annual income of the industry was from84.1 billion yuan in 2004 to RMB 3092 billion in 2012. It took only eight yearsto be NO.1 in the world. In those years, the annual growth rate has been keptat double digits, The overall profit level is also in the first or second in 13machinery industries. Attracting many enterprises, and the domesticagricultural machinery industry develop crazily. Since 2015, with reform ofagricultural planting structure supply, the development of agriculturalmachinery industry has changed from quantity growth to quality growth, andentered a new development stage. In recent years, the operation rate of theindustry market has slowed down dramatically, and the annual growth fell into asingle-digit growth range, and the profit level has dropped year by year, evennegative growth in 2018. At present, industrial adjustment and upgrading of theagricultural machinery industry is continuously promoting with the maincontents of user demand satisfaction, product quality upgrading, corecompetitiveness enhancement and shortage replenishment. The enterprise brandcompetition is focusing on the modernization characteristics of excellentquality and excellent performance.
Therefore, in 2021, the industry policysupervision will be more strict and standardized, and the space of the industrychain without competitive advantage will be narrowed greatly. The concentrationof agricultural machinery brand will be improved, the survival of mixed brandswill be more difficult. The brand awareness will be further improved, the rulesof survival of fittest will be not changed, and the industry shuffle willcontinue. There will be numerous insufficient competitiveness called "thereckless" out of this industry.
04 The exchange of the new and the oldindustries
In 2020, traditional products such as largeand medium-sized tractor, grain combine harvesters, rice transplantersincreasingly reflect the characteristics of stock competition mainly due todemand upgrading and renewal. The emerging products market such as animalhusbandry machinery, economic crop machinery and aquaculture machinery haverisen sharply, and market structure adjustment is still the mainstream ofindustry development. At present, the comprehensive mechanization degree ofcorn, wheat and rice is over 85%, which basically realizes mechanization. Butit is not synchronous that the comprehensive mechanization degree of facilityagriculture and agricultural products initial processing is only 38%, thecomprehensive mechanization of animal husbandry is less than 35%, and thecomprehensive mechanization degree of tea production is only 28%... Themechanization degree is seriously insufficient, not only that, There is a gapin the supply of machinery in many small agricultural categories in China,which needs to be further improved.
Therefore, the so-called emerging and smallcrowd are only specific titles at a specific stage. The growth of small groupsof products is closely related to the industrial development trend. In 2021,the alternate development between the old and the new industries ofagricultural machinery industry will continue, and the phenomenon of thedecline and change of different agricultural machinery categories will be anormal.
05 both ends develop, large and smallproducts are going well
In recent years, the market of agriculturalmachinery is becoming deeper segmentation and the development trend of bothends of the market has attracted much attention. On the one hand, the trend ofagricultural machinery product large-scale is obvious year by year, which ispromoted by the promotion of domestic land circulation policy, promotion ofconservation farming mode, agricultural (agricultural machinery) cooperationorganization and the rise of family farm; On the other hand, the mountainousareas (including hills and plateaus) is about 6.636 million square kilometers,accounting for 69.1% of the total land area. There are many kinds of crops andscattered land. Limited by the terrain, many hills and mountainous areas stillmanual operation. In recent years, the "hills and hills are promotedthrough subsidies ,mechanization in mountainous areas "as the key supportpolicy of the state is vigorously promoted, which also determines the largesales of small machinery suitable for the hilly and mountainous areas.
In 2020, all agricultural machinerycategories required in large-scale planting areas and plain in good sales trend.Meanwhile, small machinery required in hills and mountainous areas will show agood sales trend. It is expected that the demand for large-scale andsmall-scale agricultural machinery market will still be an important operationtrend in 2021 and the next few years.
06 science，technologyand intelligence is the general trend
With the social progress, science ,technologyand intelligence are helping people enter a more modern, convenient andefficient era. Agricultural machinery industry is also under the help ofscience and technology, inserted the wings of wisdom. Today, from the manualspraying medicine with heavy medicine box on the back of farmers to the UAVplant protection; From the small four wheels started by hand to the tractorwith high horsepower driverless; From map, manual guidance to Beidou star; Fromheavy mechanical shift to one key control; From the observation at site to thedata remote consultation; From the cleaning of chicken house to sterileworkshop breeding... The agricultural machinery which is provided withscientific, technological intelligence and the industrial services of land andhusbandry has become "high level", which is the trend and necessityof the global agricultural machinery competition. Believe that in 2021, science,technologyand intelligence will create more and more "miracles" beyond ourimagination in agricultural machinery industry.
07 network help create new business model
Internet, such as a pair of invisiblehands, completely subverts all the traditional habits in people's lives, and isreconstructing the social operation ecology. The Internet has also changed thebusiness model of agricultural machinery industry. In the past, we must buyagricultural machinery to stores. Now, it is very different, and online andoffline can be synchronized. Besides, online service, online productexperience, online appointment and so on are available. Then, the agriculturalmachinery enterprises have changed from the original single "productmanufacturing + distribution channel entity operation" to "productmanufacturing + distribution channel entity operation + online platform",and then to " comprehensive mechanization solution provider". Thebusiness model change presents a new form, from a single "selling productsand selling services" to "providing solutions", Thetransformation from single entity business to industrial ecosystem with"Internet plus modern agricultural machinery " highlights more andmore business connotations. In 2021, the impact of network on agriculturalmachinery industry will be more and more obvious, and the digital industry willinevitably happen.
08 fill in the supply gap, and it isbecoming a trend
In 2020, the agriculture Ministry launchedthe special subsidy for the purchase of agricultural machinery products. Itwill dig deeply and assist the policy for the users who need to have certainmarket volume and prospect and innovative agricultural machinery products, soas to meet the diversified needs of users and help the industry progress. It isnot difficult for the industry to find that in 2020, all agricultural machineryenterprises engaged in small products have achieved better businessperformance. Facing the reality, there are still a lot of areas of agriculturalmechanization supply shortage, such as pepper transplanting machinery, yamharvesting machinery, chestnut harvesting and processing machinery, pepper deicingequipment, etc., all belong to the blank or scarce supply products that usersjust need. The diverse products are not enough, and further improvement isneeded. In 2021 and even in the next few years, the development of smallproducts is focused on upgrading and original products commercialization willbe a great market.
09 rational consumption, more pursuit ofhigh quality and efficiency
With the development of industry, theconsumption of agricultural machinery products by users becomes more rational,and the blindly following behavior becomes less and less. Especially with thegrowth of younger generation users, the personalized demand for products isbecoming more and more obvious. The user purchase behavior is carried outaround the elements of "product", "quality","need", and at the same time, under the influence of the epidemicsituation, People's income is impacted, and the consumption of users tends tobe more rational. It can be predicted that in 2021, the phenomenon of repeatedmeasurement of the purchase brand will be more common around the factors ofproduct performance, price and quality. The competition among brands will bemore intense. The quality and efficiency of agricultural machinery products arealways the key indicators for users to pursue.
10 hot spots are concentrated, industrialtuyere is related to trend
No matter how mature the industrialdimension is, and no matter how the market competition pattern changes, the"Red Sea" and "blue sea" market coexist. In 2021, the hot spotof agricultural machinery market is expected to focus on the followingproducts: first, the related agricultural machinery products of animalhusbandry industry, such as green feed harvester, silage machine, baler, feedprocessing machinery, feeding machinery, livestock and poultry feedingmanagement machinery and equipment, etc; Second, small agricultural machineryproducts just needed by users, such as peanut harvesting machinery, potatoharvesting machinery, onion ginger and garlic harvesting machinery, yamharvesting machinery, aquaculture equipment and various small-scalecharacteristic agricultural machinery products suitable for use in Hilly andmountainous areas, etc; Third, high-end domestic products with high costperformance, such as domestic cotton picker, sugarcane harvester, domesticlarge animal husbandry machinery and large-scale land ploughing machinery, etc;Fourth, scientific and technological innovation of agricultural machineryproducts, such as remote control cruise system, plant protection UAV, unmanneddriving, crop planting environment monitoring and monitoring equipment, etc;Fifth, energy conservation and environmental protection, and related productswith modern agriculture, such as facilities and agricultural equipment, biomassenergy and waste treatment equipment, straw fertilizer equipment, dripirrigation equipment, etc.
The time of going forward is alwayschanging inadvertently. 2021 has come. We must not hesitate to linger or let usrest for breath. We must adapt to the trend, adapt to change, accumulatepotential energy, stride forward with confidence and create new brilliance.