With mass stock,what’s the fate for huge and medium tractor market?

　　In recent years, with the implementation of a series of subsidy adjustment policies for tractor products, the change of tractor market has emerged, and people have gradually made clear  judgment on the developed trend. For the prediction and judgment of the market, we must focus on the key factors that affect the industrial fluctuation, and follow up the market rule to carry out scientific analysis according to the significance of different influencing factors in order to make the prediction reliable.

　　As one of the typical representative products of agricultural machinery, tractor plays an important role in the agricultural machinery industry. After years of development and progress, the domestic tractor market has entered a new stage of development. While the demand for popularization of tractor products is satisfied,the trend of tractor industry to high quality progress is more obvious , the market operation has entered a period of comprehensive consolidation of stock competition.

　　Stock competition, narrow growth space

　　Macro economy determines the life and death of enterprises, and micro economy determines the scale of enterprises. Overall, the macro environment faced by agricultural machinery industry in China has been in a good situation, while the micro environment faced by different products and industries is extremely different. Looking back on the trend of the large and medium-sized tractor market in the past 10 years, it is not difficult to find that after a substantial increase in 2013, the growth rate has been low in recent years. From 2017 to 2019, there has been a significant decline in three consecutive years, and a rebound in 2020, while the main driving force is due to the multiple policy support under the epidemic situation. Generally speaking, the key indicators of the large and medium-sized tractor market have changed significantly in recent years. First, the growth of the main business income of the industry has slowed down; Second, the overall market sales volume is stable and falling; Third, the loss of large and medium-sized tractor enterprises is increasing; Fourth, profits are a little and falling.

　　According to statistics, in 2018, domestic tractor enterprises lost 1.724 billion yuan, and in 2019, loss of 718 million yuan. Although the market of huge and medium tractor industry will recover significantly in 2020, the overdraft under the help of multiple policies is obvious. Various signs show that the rigid demand of domestic large and medium-sized tractor market is basically lost. The market is full of the stock, and the market increment is more and more reflected in the renewal of stock products, and the market growth space is narrowed greatly. In these years, although the industry is optimistic, but after nearly half a year of market operation, the performance of the large and medium-sized tractor market is far lower than expected, and the strength is insufficient, and the consolidation signs are obvious.

　　Demand oriented, market structure adjusted

　　According to the analysis of the proportion of sales structure, in recent years, 25-100 horsepower medium-sized tractor products are the mainstream of market sales, with sales proportion of more than 70%, which is mainly due to two reasons, the first is that the small tractor products is in the phase out period, and most of the demand for small tractors has turned to 25hp and above medium-sized tractor products; The second reason is that the medium tractor are widely used, which can meet the demands of most users in different regions. The product  has a high cost performance. Under the condition of operating income decreasing , users return is faster.

　　At the same time, the demand of bigger horsepower  is also obvious. The product with more than 200 horsepower has shown a large increase, which is related to the modern agricultural progress, national policy orientation and industrial upgrading. First, with the promotion of land circulation and trusteeship, the scale of agricultural operation gradually expands and the demand for large-scale products increases; Secondly, Agricultural Machinery Cooperatives, agricultural machinery service organizations, family farms and other new subjects are developing rapidly. Farmers are glad to use big power tractor t0 improve the efficiency and quality of their work; Thirdly, the new farming mode is vigorously promoted, especially the conservation tillage promotes the rapid growth of large-scale farming machines and tools market, which drives the bigger power tractor to be extended.

　　In addition, the national subsidy for purchasing agricultural machinery is subsidized according to the horsepower segment, which promotes the users to choose to purchase high-power tractors. Meanwhile, the dry field machinery suitable for northeast, North China, northwest and Central Plains region started early, developed rapidly and the market satisfaction was high. On the contrary, small and paddy products in the hills and mountainous areas of the South still need to be insufficient and the structural adjustment continued. It can be concluded that the market pattern of "medium horsepower is the mainstream and high horsepower is the trend" will continue. The user demand is always the fundamental starting point of industrial progress. The indicators such as reliable operation performance, strong applicability, high intelligence and reasonable price are concerned, and the industrial structure adjustment will continue.

　　Imbalance of supply and demand, increasing survival risk

　　As we all know, competition is a basic mechanism of market economy. Competition mechanism guarantees the survival of enterprises at micro level. In recent years, the competition in domestic large and medium-sized tractor market has become serious - "for order, kill the eye"! According to incomplete statistics, in 2020, China's large and medium-sized tractor manufacturing enterprises exceed 200, distributed in 18 provinces, cities and regions in China, of which Shandong Province forms the largest tractor production enterprise cluster, accounting for half of the country, while over 60% of Shandong enterprises are concentrated in Weifang, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan and Hebei. The biggest advantage of industrial clusters is the low-cost operation of industrial chain, The price advantage is formed, and in the market competition with serious homogenization, price competition has always been the killer mace.

　　According to incomplete statistics, the annual demand of large and medium-sized tractor in China is about 400000 sets, while the annual capacity of many manufacturing enterprises exceeds 1 million, which is obvious that the supply larger than the demand. As we all know, the shuffling of domestic large and medium-sized tractor industry has a long history, but the concentration of brands is not obvious, and the effect of survival of the fittest is not complete. From this year, under the driving of the national industrial policies such as reducing subsidies for large and medium-sized tractor and improving emission standards, stock competition will accelerate the industry shuffle, and the brand rotation just start. The pace of "high quality" development will be forward, In the future, bad products and brands  and trying to "earn fast money" will not exist.

　　Intelligence is the king

　　The agricultural machinery market in China is coming in a new era, that is large-scale and high-end,intelligent agricultural machinery is the highland, the trend, the future, and the strategic key point for agricultural machinery enterprises. Large and medium-sized tractor are no exception. With the promotion of a series of advanced technologies such as Internet, GPS, Beidou satellite and remote control, tractor, a traditional agricultural machinery product, has been inserted with intelligent "wings". The high-tech which is available such as one key control, unmanned driving, automatic collection of moisture data and dynamic monitoring of big data has been displayed in front of people, from imagination to reality. Undoubtedly, in the near future, agricultural machinery will be more intelligent, automation and humanization . Therefore, traditional agricultural machinery manufacturing must be combined with advanced technology, "agricultural machinery + Internet", "agricultural machinery + Internet of things", "agricultural machinery + AI", product technology upgrading, etc., which is the trend of progress and upgrading of all agricultural machinery products, and also make the development and application of large and medium-sized tractor products. All agricultural machinery enterprises must pay close attention  and do well in this tool.

　　Quality growth, focusing on technological breakthroughs

　　Looking at a case of other industries, in 1999, Chongqing entrepreneur yinmingshan won a victory in the Southeast Asian motorcycle market. A large number of Chinese motorcycle enterprises swarmed in after hearing the news. After a brief carnival, a low price internal war was conducted to not only return the market to Japanese Enterprises, but also blacken the image of the whole Chinese enterprise in Southeast Asia market, This is a miniature of many domestic industries. There are similar problems of serious homogenization in China's large and medium-sized tractor industry. As we all know, at present, many small and medium-sized tractor manufacturing enterprises in China are built from the marketing, technology and production backbone of large leading agricultural machinery enterprises such as Yituo, weichailovo and Dongfeng. The products are imitated from the original enterprises, including technology, supply chain, channel, terminal even assembly workers are highly identical. Because of their low cost of management, marketing and production, and outstanding price advantages, they have become a strong competitor of the first-line brands in recent years. This phenomenon is more prominent in Weifang, Luoyang and Ningbo.

　　When the market developing, these enterprises can quickly seize the territory by relying on price advantages. After entering the stock market, the demand is greatly reduced, and the user will pay more attention to the product quality and brand, especially the hard core strength of technology progress and process innovation. Besides, domestic large and medium-sized enterprises still have barriers in the field of super horsepower products, and the imported products are expensive, It is imperative to realize the localization substitution. Therefore, to win the future market competition, only self-improvement, innovation and overtaking are the only ways. It is worth for all business operators pay more attention for the fields of power shift, CVT,intelligent, new energy and green environmental protection, which represents the development direction of tractor and the direction of advanced productivity.

　　Market segmentation to meet diverse needs

　　It is not difficult to find that there are two main lines in the process of tractor market development in China. First, the horsepower is extended, product upgrading , from the first single cylinder and four wheels tractor can be seen everywhere to being replaced by large and medium-sized trailers. From low-end mechanical operation products to today's intelligent control, the upgrading and replacement of Tractor Products has not stopped, and different characteristics are presented in different periods; Second, tractor products have experienced the gradual progress from the north dry field machinery to the South paddy field machinery. As a whole, the dry land machinery suitable for the operation in Northeast, North China, northwest and Central regions has started early, developed rapidly and the market satisfaction is high. On the contrary, small and paddy products in the southern hills and mountainous areas still need to be improved.

　　At the same time, the demand for segmentation in each region is becoming more and more diversified, not only in the factors of wheel pitch, tire type and driving mode, but also in the deformation operation and function expansion. Product segmentation, brand segmentation and regional subdivision, as a traditional product, such as medium and small tractor, enter the stock competition in an all-round way, It shows more subdivided industrial characteristics. Therefore, all large and medium-sized enterprises must pay close attention to this feature, adopt targeted strategies, in order to seize users and occupy the market, so as to make the brand run for a long time.

　　"We must be clear that whether it is engaged in large and medium-sized tractor industry or any other agricultural machinery industry, they must be long-term activists, must have perseverance, focus on the main industry, combine theory and practice, constantly improve, innovate and meet the changing needs of users, so as to promote the progress of the industry and realize its own value.