Any chance for fully stocked wheat machine market？

　　As we all know, wheel grain combine harvester (commonly referred to as "wheat machine") is one of the first traditional agricultural machinery products to enter the stock market competition, and is also the most remarkable memory of many Chinese. The wheat machine probability first changed the traditional agricultural cultivation mode, and made the wheat harvest from the manual sickle, bind, move, dry, mill，into one-time harvester.Thanks to the promotion of wheat machine, so that farmers' "three summer" is no longer difficult.

　　With the adjustment of agricultural machinery industry，since 2014, wheat machinery has entered the stock market, and the sales amount has fallen back year by year. However, the trend of large-scale and intelligent wheat machinery has gradually increased. The main market increment is mainly stock renewal. According to incomplete statistics, the overall market sales volume of domestic wheat machinery will remain within 20000 units in 2020, and the market is stable，and will be continuing.

　　Looking at the stable supply chain system and the old industrial model in wheat machinery field for a long time, under the impetus of the shrinking demand of new generation, digital integration and Internet assistance, it also faces new challenges. How can the "Red Sea" break through?

　　Looking back: to create a model, to borrow policy, or to generate endogenous demand?

　　In the development of agricultural machinery industry in China, wheat machinery market, as a subdivision field, has distinct characteristics and unique brand of the times at different stages. When it comes to wheat machine, we must first say that wheat is an important food crop in China.

　　As one of the four main grain crops in China, wheat has always been an important source of staple food for the people in the north, especially in the Central Plains. Whether it can be eaten with white noodles has been regarded as one of the measurement criteria for people's living standard of affluence. Whether it is winter wheat or spring wheat, it is an important position in the field of Chinese agriculture. Before the 90s, northerners could experience the hardships of wheat manual work, especially in the wheat harvest season, which was the hottest "three summer" in the year. The sun was hot and the whole land was hot. At this time, the common people would say that, working in the field, sweat beads fell on the ground into eight parts. However, just at this time, the hotter they are harder, Fear of cloudy days, if the harvest is not timely, wheat will be affected by moisture, mildew or even germination. The application and promotion of wheat machine have solved the agricultural problem thoroughly, and opened the epoch-making mechanization revolution.

　　The promotion of domestic wheat machinery originated from the top and bottom in 2000. The rapid growth of wheat machine started in 2004 when the state subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase began to be implemented. Under the dual effect of policy assistance and user demand, the market sales volume increased rapidly. After a series of processes, such as market accumulation, scale formation, new upgrading, market saturation, solid pattern and stock competition, the market volume was increased rapidly, The wheat machine market has entered the normal operation of high quality and low speed. Overall, the development process of domestic wheat machine market can be divided into four stages:

　　The first stage, from the end of 1990s to 2004, can be called the market accumulation period. The introduction, digestion and preliminary commercialization of wheat machinery technology are completed in this stage, and the market sales volume is not large;

　　The second stage, from 2004 to 2009, is the construction period for the market platform. Driven by subsidy policy, the market potential demandis stimulated. This stage is the real subsidy leading period. The market fluctuates following the changes of subsidy quota and is extremely unstable. The most iconic time nodes are found in this stage, first of all, in 2005 year, The state subsidy fund increased from 7000 yuan in 2004 to 30000 yuan, which was the largest increase in 328.6% in the history of domestic agricultural machinery subsidies. In the same year, the sales volume of wheat machinery market rose from 17000 units in the previous year to over 30000, with an increase of 83.53%, which also became the biggest increase in the following 14 years; Second, in 2007, with the announcement of the cancellation of subsidies for wheat harvester purchase at the end of 2006, the largest decline in nearly 16 years was achieved, which was 51.97% lower than that of the previous year; Third, in 2009, the subsidy fund entered the channel of RMB 13billion from RMB 4billion in 2008. The wheat harvester also broke out because of disguised subsidy of wheat and corn as a whole. The sales volume of that year exceeded 60000, reaching the peak of annual sales in the wheat harvester market in history;

　　The third stage, from 2010 to 2013, the stable period of  demand, since 2010, the annual demand of wheat machinery has been maintained at about 40000 sets for three consecutive years. According to statistics, as of 2013, the domestic rice and wheat harvesting machinery has a stock of 1134000, which has met the demand and the market is fully satisfied;

　　The fourth stage, from 2014 to now, during the normal period of stock competition, under the background of adjustment and upgrading of agricultural machinery industry structure, wheat machinery has entered a continuous decline channel of annual sales volume, and the market increment has turned to stock renewal. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the annual sales volume has maintained stable operation at 20000 sets.

　　If the development of wheat machinery market is compared to one of the growth models of domestic agricultural machinery industry, believed no one  oppose it. In the whole process of wheat machine market development, such as germination, starting, prosperity, saturation and low-speed normalization, we feel the rapid rise of wheat machine, and the epoch-making revolution brought by mechanization, What I feel is the progressive power of the mechanical industry. A series of factors, such as the driving of national subsidy policy, income generation by cross regional operation, land intensive, the rise of cooperatives and family farms, have jointly achieved different industrial characteristics at different stages, promoted the upgrading of wheat harvest technology and products, and also achieved a series of famous brands such as Gu Shen, Gu Wang, Wade and Zoomlion. In addition, the time of wheat machine income is concentrated With the characteristics of short operation cycle and shift of operation area, Lovol heavy industry took the lead in launching tracking service, which led to the promotion of nanny service mode of "three summer" centralized service, and inserted wisdom wings for agricultural machinery services relying on the Internet.

　　Outlook: break the rules, if not eat "incremental" meat, can drink "stock" soup?

　　When we look back at history, we can find that there are only two economic themes in human history, one is growth and the other is distribution. In the general high growth period, we focus on efficiency, mainly considering how to bake cakes better and faster; But when there are fewer opportunities for growth, people must be more focused on "fair" and consider how to better and reasonably distribute the existing cakes.

　　Shayder, a professor of history at Stanford University, wrote in the book "unequal society", that the long history of human growth tells us that growth and differentiation are like the "human" word, and rapid growth is always accompanied by sharp differentiation. The more growth and differentiation, this has always been an inevitable rule of human history. Because the people who occupy the dominant position in the whole social distribution system, master the means of production and the factors of production, will often get more growth fruits.

　　As we all know, the pattern of the head brand in the domestic wheat machine market has been in existence for a long time. Before 2013, Gu Shen had been in the absolute monopoly position of the industry, and at its peak, it occupied more than 70% of the market share. The launch of the wheat machine of Gu Wang was in 2011. After less than two years of cultivation, it entered the first tier in 2013, and competed with gshen wheat machine to quickly seize market share. The competition pattern of domestic wheat machine market changed from "one single big" to "two major governance".

　　In the following years, the sales volume of wheat harvester of two brands, Gu Shen and Gu Wang, has accounted for more than 75% of the market, and the difference between the two brands is far from that of the second tier of wheat harvester, such as the middle harvest and spring rain. These two brands are not only the wind vane of wheat machine market competition, but also the leader in the development trend of products. Throughout the establishment and development of wheat machine service mode, it is based on Lovol and Dongfang red. Every year, wheat sickle harvesting in late April and the end of wheat harvest in late June, the wheat Machine Service groups, according to different regional operation time, spans Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hubei, Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shandong and other places to provide tracking services for the machine.

　　In 2020, 8kg/s and 9kg/s wheat machinery products will lead the mainstream market, and the concentration of market sales brands will be further enhanced. Three summers servise will continue to be the business card for the operation of agricultural machinery industry. The head enterprise develops rapidly, but the end enterprises are facing the danger of "the last elimination". The number of enterprises is rapidly shrinking. Since 2015, the number of production enterprises has decreased from 36 to more than 20, and the number of dealers has decreased from 1725 to 1100. The cruelty of market shuffling can be seen.

　　If it is more important to look up at the stars in the "bubble" era, it is the right way to focus on the products and meet the needs of users. Facing the characteristics of stable industrial structure, distinct competition area, leading brand effect and high demand for service timeliness, wheat machine enterprises can win market competition only by finding the right position, following the market changes, subdividing areas, cultivating loyal customers, grinding operation reliable and cost-effective products. Specifically, there are several points to be concerned about:

　　First, the product is upgraded again. It is necessary to ensure the reliability of the product and ensure the advanced, intelligent and multifunctional products. For example, the domestic wheat harvester product is upgraded to the vertical axial flow threshing and separating technology by the shear drum plus longitudinal axial flow single cylinder and double drum threshing and separating technology, which not only can harvest wheat, but also can harvest corn, oil sunflower, soybean, rape and other crops. Users want to be efficient and energy-saving, which is worth all manufacturers' attention;

　　Second, the service is upgraded again. While doing well in field ground service, we should be good at using the Internet to realize offline and online interaction. The most quantifiable measure is to make mobile phone an effective "service tool", and further improve the timeliness and convenience of services;

　　Third, brand cultivation. In view of the personalized characteristics of wheat machine market brand recognition and high user brand recognition, any enterprise that wants to obtain user recognition should, while ensuring the product quality is excellent, find the target market, spare no effort to cultivate brand, cultivate brand exclusive area and loyal users, especially the second and third tier brands, We should take flexible marketing strategy to seize market share and promote the growth of their own brand;

　　Fourth, focus on the post market. After entering the stock market, the value effect of the wheat machine market is more and more obvious. No wheat machine enterprise can not pay attention to the post market, such as the second hand machine trading, general accessories demand, differential special parts processing, localized service and maintenance, etc., which may create a high value income;

　　Fifth, provide solutions. In the wheat machine business, we must complete the transformation from simply providing products to providing a complete set of solutions, and provide mechanization assistance from the whole process of farming, seed, keep, collection, drying, storage and processing. Meanwhile, we should reach a series of mechanical solutions for the bale recycling, feed, fertilizer and processing reuse of wheat straw, whether it is to create an ecological circle with the joint efforts of relevant enterprises, It is necessary for large-scale enterprises to expand their business scope, implement compound operation and form integrated services.

　　Although the business model is diverse and not limited to the above methods, the core essence and key elements of business are unchanged, that is, products, markets, users, demand satisfaction and industrial progress. Only trampling on the ground and constantly innovating can we find the right way.

　　No industry is not a big country, and a strong manufacturing country is a strong country. On the one hand, high-quality development means that we must adjust and eliminate some enterprises, On the other hand, under the global competition, we are forced to push forward the supply chain adjustment and industrial structure upgrading. Looking at the future, the process of survival of the fittest and the upgrading of quality of wheat machinery industry is accelerating. Only competition can promote the industry to enter a new stage of development. Any enterprise, no matter how strong or large it is, can not be relaxed, because the domestic agricultural machinery industry is still on the way to the world-class level, and it needs the unremitting efforts of all agricultural machinery people.