In 2021, transplanter industry, in the changing situation to seek a new situation!

　　In 2021, transplanter industry, in the changing situation to seek a new situation!

　　Rice is the largest staple grain in China. With the improvement of living standard, urbanization process and changes of dietary structure, the proportion of grain rations in the three major grains is still increasing. Therefore, to some extent, China's food security must first ensure the adequate supply of rice. Based on this importance,In the past 10 years, the rice planting area in China has been stable at about 450 million mu; According to the data of China agriculture outlook conference in 2020, the rice planting area will still increase steadily in the next 10 years.

　　"The foundation of agriculture is mechanization". Rice planting cannot be separated from agricultural machinery. At present, rice transplanting machine is still short, and also an opportunity for rice transplanter, seed-sowing machines, transplanter and other agricultural machinery. In the three rice planting machines, it is seen that rice transplanter has a relatively large advantage in efficiency and effect, so it is still the main part in rice planting equipment, It is also a category of key support and promotion of national agricultural machinery purchase subsidies.

　　Affected by the epidemic situation in 2020, the rice transplanter industry has a development feature of sudden release of potential power after short pressure, and the performance of the whole year is still good. We think that the rice transplanter in 2021 is a developing trend of seeking a new situation in the changing situation.

　　Time: in platform stage, high level oscillation

　　Each industry has its own specific development principle. Observing historical data can infer the future development trend of the industry. By observing the industry data of rice transplanter in 2000-2020, it can be seen that after the implementation of subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase in 2004, the potential of the domestic transplanter industry has been activated. From 2003 to 2013, it has been in a high-speed growth range. After 2014, the potential of policy and demand has been released, The industry has experienced a typical cliff drop, and then the industry experience touching the bottom - rebound - pull - Top - down.

　　Overall, since 2011, the domestic rice transplanter has completed a rapid growth period, and the industry has entered a stable development period. In view of the great influence of subsidy policies, this period is called platform period. The development trend of the industry in this stage is "high operation, oscillation forward and spiral rise". If we can recognize this development principle, Enterprises can arrange production and marketing plans calmly.

　　In addition, transplanter manufacturers should also know the overall market capacity of the industry to decide to enter or leave the industry. From 2010 to 2020, the total sales value of the whole industry has reached 3 billion yuan in 2017, and it is expected to be 2.5 billion yuan in 2020. We judge that the sales value of rice transplanter in China will hover between 2-2.5 billion in the next 10 years.

　　It can be seen that rice transplanter is an industry with the same principle as rotary tiller, seeder and other agricultural machinery. Compared with 40 billion tractor industry and 20billion combined harvester industry, it is not at same level. Therefore, large enterprises can only take it as a supplementary category, and small enterprises only engage in the production of such single agricultural machinery, It will never be a mainstream agricultural machinery manufacturer.

　　From the perspective of industry development trend, the industry is still in the period of oscillation in 2021. In view of the particularity of 2020, the overall production and sales of transplanter industry in 2021 may decline slightly. However, the demand bottom is between 55000 and 60000 sets. This stage can be called "well-off" stage, and the demand will not surge and fall, and the industry has entered the stage of comprehensive strength.

　　Product : high speed machine replaces hand support, and intelligently becomes a new track

　　The change of demand determines the trend of products, but the demand is created by enterprises actively in most cases. At the same time, the domestic agricultural machinery industry is greatly affected by subsidy policy, "in the short term focus on policy, long term focus on demand".

　　To observe the development direction of domestic transplanter products, one is to focus on the demand itself, and the demand should mainly follow and observe the large-scale planting and trend, the second is to focus on subsidy policy, and the third is to focus on the promotion key point of the enterprise.

　　The logic of the bottom competitor of rice transplanter products in China is divided into: first, the operation speed, the second is the operation efficiency and the third is the operation effect. Therefore, the overall judgment is that the proportion of high speed and high efficiency models of rice transplanter products will still increase in 2021, and the proportion of the low efficiency machines and operation effects is further reduced.

　　1. The share of high speed transplanter for hand transplanter is irreversible

　　With the land circulation, large-scale agricultural development and the outflow of rural labor, the product of transplanter has developed towards more lines and higher operation efficiency. This is the biggest and most obvious trend of transplanter products. If we can get this, we can understand logic of the industry lowest competition.

　　The advantage of the hand transplanter is low price, but the disadvantage is low operation efficiency. The advantage of the riding high-speed transplanter is high efficiency, but the disadvantage is high price. The hand transplanter meets the consumption level of domestic farmers, which once occupied the majority of the proportion. However, after 2015, the situation has changed significantly. The proportion of high-speed transplanter in 2020 is close to 40%, In 2021, it is expected to exceed 40%, and the proportion of high-speed transplanters will exceed 50% in 2025. At that time, the hand transplanter will become a supplementary product.

　　On the one hand, the user needs more efficient equipment, on the one hand, the manufacturer is more willing to promote the high-speed machine with higher subsidy quota and higher profit. The change in 2021 products:

　　First, the number of 4-row new machines decreased and 6-Row machines increased. This has been verified and will be more obvious in 2021.

　　Second, the proportion of high-speed transplanter increased and the proportion of hand machine decreased. Some enterprises are planning to replace 6 row hand transplanter with 4-line and 5-line high-speed transplanter, which is a "falling into a blow".

　　Third, in high-speed transplanter, enterprises will focus on promoting 8 lines,or 7 lines, 9 lines and 11 lines with higher efficiency, or those with unchanged rows but higher efficiency through technical improvement.

　　2. Automatic navigation, unmanned, intelligent into a new track

　　In 2020, there is no good deal in other aspects of transplanter industry, but intelligent technology has lit up the stars for the industry.

　　Almost all transplanter enterprises are focus on intelligence . From the November national meeting in Qingdao, it can be seen that more than ten mainstream brands are focusing on promoting models equipped with automatic navigation, assisted driving and even unmanned driving system. Jiangsu ward and xingyueshen，the domestic brands, are all displayed three transplanters for auxiliary driving and unmanned driving, Jiubaotian also launched the nw8sa model of the unmanned transplanter .

　　According to industry experts, after more than ten years of digestion and absorption, domestic brands have basically mastered the core technology of transplanter manufacturing. The product technology level is in line with the products of jiubaotian and Yangma in China. Because there is no enterprise in technology to break through, the homogenization competition is very fierce and differential development is imperative.

　　The automatic navigation and auxiliary driving based on Beidou terminal application technology is a new track to realize differentiation, which can be a first step, and the domestic brand is likely to successfully surpass.

　　Japanese brands and domestic brands all hope to be intelligent. In 2021, intelligent transplanter will officially appear. The new round of upgraded version of homogenization competition has been launched. In the future, intelligent technology is the trend in the new track of transplanter industry, but only the fastest one can win.

　　Technology: from "hundred schools of contention" to "three families returning to Jin"

　　The technology here is not about the specific product technical details, but the technical schools, which is more important than the simple technical details.

　　At present, the technical schools of domestic transplanter include jiubaotian system, Yangma system, jingguanxi and Mitsubishi system. Different domestic brands have chosen different teams. However, according to the my tracking ，observation and investigation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, jiubaotian system has become the mainstream. As far as I know, only one xingyueshen is the one who takes Mitsubishi technique in China, But the products of xingyueshen also integrate many advantages of jiubaotian, and other technical schools become "on the other hand".

　　According to the state subsidy system for agricultural machinery purchase, 66 transplanter enterprises in China realized the sales of transplanter through subsidy system in 2020. Almost all domestic brands have taken jiubaotian technical route, which is the same as 80% of the tractor industry brands take the Futian System.

　　So why did the domestic brands collectively choose jiubaotian technology? According to expert analysis: first, jiubaotian brand has great influence, and copying jiubaotian is easy to get the user's approval; Second, the supporting system of jiubaotian is sound, and the cost of accessories taking jiubaotian route is lower and more easily successful; Third, the structure of jiubaotian transplanter is simple, the integration of mechanical and electrical liquid is low, and the imitation is easier; Fourth, jiubaotian has a large amount of insurance, and the service and accessories system is sound. Copying jiubaotian can reduce or do not need to invest in accessories and services at all.

　　According to the information, there will still be more than 3 new transplanter brands entering the industry competition in 2021. They will also take the route of jiubaotian. Therefore, the domestic transplanter industry has realized the "three families returning to Jin" from "hundred schools of contention", and jiubaotian has become the leader, and all of them will take their techinque, It indicates that there will be more intense homogenization competition in 2021.

　　Competition: 2021 may be a watershed, with domestic brands supporting and high insertion of double brands exceeding Japanese brands

　　Competition is the source of industry development and innovation! Benign competition can promote the leap of industry technology, promote enterprises to constantly launch new products, change business model, and reduce the price of products. The most beneficial thing is that users can purchase products with better performance and efficiency with less money, thus attracting more users to purchase more agricultural machinery, which further stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprises, Thus, there are more cost-effective products into the market, which will be a benign cycle.

　　At present, the competition of the domestic transplanter industry is relatively benign. Jiubaotian and Yangma lead the development of the industry in terms of product, technology and quality, and take the high price line, leaving enough profit space for the industry.

　　However, from the development trend, the domestic brands have stronger enterprising spirit, while jiubaotian and Yangma have been in the defensive for a long time. With the change of time, the overall competitive strength of domestic brands and Japanese brands has changed subtly. In 2020, the sales volume of domestic brands has been equal to that of the three Japanese brands. Of course, the sales volume is still behind Japanese brands, But it is also a historic change.

　　At present, the domestic brands is focused on high-speed transplanter. In 2021, they have aligned the direction of the muzzle to Japanese brand, and have made all preparations for "saturation attack". According to the information learned from several major transplanter supporting manufacturers, the plan for preparing high-speed transplanters of xingyueshen and wade in 2021 is 7000 sets, and the other brands in China have added more than 10000 sets, The total stock of domestic brands exceeds 20000 sets. All such large capacity will be put into the market, which will have a huge impact on the high-speed transplanter of jiubaotian and Yangma and the dilution of the market.

　　It is expected that 2021 will become a watershed in the domestic rice transplanter industry. As a whole, 60 domestic brands will surpass Japanese brands in terms of hand transplanter and high-speed transplanter sales, especially high-speed transplanter, which will achieve the first quantity surpassing. After that, the competition pattern of the industry will be reversed, and the domestic brands will quickly change from followers to leaders, The pattern of rice combine harvester industry will be repeated in rice transplanter industry. This is inevitable in history. It will not be in 2021, but also will happen in the near future.

　　Competation: the industry is facing the double strikes of "cross-border robbery" and "reducing maintenance strike"

　　In recent years, we have witnessed many cases of traditional industries being "cross-border looted" and "reduced maintenance".

　　"Cross border robbery" is that "barbarians at the door" break into your house without permission. Without your opinion, they take away everything in your family. You can only watch and be incapable of being able to do so.

　　"Reducing dimension strike" is a higher competition mode, "I eliminate you, it is not related to you". Competitors stand in the high-dimensional world. People in low-dimensional world can't understand the high-dimensional world at all, let alone how to deal with the attack.

　　At present, the rice transplanter in China is facing the double strikes of "cross-border robbery" and "dimension reduction strike" of competitive products. The most important thing to be vigilant is the unmanned aircraft, the second is rice seeding machine, and the next is rice transplanter. All these three kinds of rice planting machines have the truth of "cross-border looting" and "dimension reduction strike", Companies in the industry's existing vested interests must not despise them.

　　The most important thing to pay attention to is the live drone, and the subversion of rice transplanter is likely to be from air attack rather than ground machinery.

　　We should know that the live drone is a variant of the plant protection UAV, and the plant protection UAV has basically replaced the large ground machinery such as boom sprayer. After the plant protection drone boarded the agricultural machinery stage in 2015, the ground plant protection machinery entered the end of the doomsday. In 2020, the sales volume of the plant protection UAV was 3 times that of the boom sprayer. The market share lost by ground machinery is increasing for plant protection drones, which is a strong alternative.

　　Without accident, the live drone will fully replace rice transplanters, including rice direct seeding machines and rice transplanters. The traditional rice transplanters such as jiubaotian, Yangma and wade have seen this trend. The correct response is to push out the rice direct seeding machine, and increase the category of plant protection unmanned aircraft, But facing the trend, they are in the dilemma of innovators, because success is the stumbling block for the successful, and it is much harder to change their own lives than to change the lives of others.

　　Summary: shihanbing, a famous financial expert, said, "once the trend comes out, it will be like a wild horse running fast. People follow it. No matter how much effort, it is difficult to catch up with it. Only when you walk in front, ride on a horse and grasp the reins, you can go with it." in 2021, the trend has gone out, the industry has been oscillating upward, and the disruptive technology of products has emerged, and the competition is about to break, Whether it is Japanese or more than 60 domestic brands, we should have a deep insight into this industry in the turning period, keep up with the changes of the times, actively seek change, innovate with great will and strive for a new situation in the changing situation!