Domestic tractor industry: towards the dangerous world of stock killing!

　　Tractor industry will always cause great attention in the agricultural machinery industry. If there is hot wheel movement in the agricultural machinery industry, tractor is a star with a small appearance. The whole industry is in a bad situation. Tractor has changed from the former leader to the leader. It is of great reference value to understand the current situation and competition pattern of tractor industry for the future enterprise development.

　　1、 The engine of agricultural machinery, practitioners, the complex competition pattern!

　　Tractor industry is of great significance to a country's agricultural machinery industry. It is inevitable that the powerful agricultural machinery is a tractor country and a global agricultural machinery country. When developing the domestic agricultural machinery industry, we have chosen * * first, we start with tractors. In the global competition pattern of agricultural machinery in the 21st century, tractors cannot be without tractors, and tractors will still be the industries that will be strengthened and exerted by powerful agricultural machinery. If the global agricultural machinery pattern is expected to be reconstructed, the subvertor must start with tractors first. In this sense, tractors will remain the core of industrial competition in the future global agricultural machinery war.

　　The domestic agricultural machinery industry was also started from tractors first. In 1958, the national economy was in a difficult period, and Dongfang red tractor factory was built with the national strength. In 60 years, every industrial upgrading of agricultural machinery was conducted with tractor as the leader.

　　In terms of volume, the annual output value of domestic tractors is about 50billion yuan, and the indirect output value is about 80billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the total output value of agricultural machinery industry. In addition, many tractor enterprises are diversified. The combined harvester, transplanter, silage harvester, rotary tiller and baler are established depending on the tractor capacity drive, technology spillover and management radiation, Tractor is the engine of agricultural machinery.

　　In countries with tractor industry, tractor industry should be full of practitioners, especially in China. According to the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy system data, 193 companies have business through the subsidy system for agricultural machinery purchase in 2018, and have completed 245000 product sales. If there are no enterprises in the subsidy catalogue, at least 200 companies.

　　At present, there are more than * * Chinese tractor manufacturers, and the tractor industry is competitive in the world. At present, almost all the world has the conditions to enter the Chinese tractor enterprises. The large multinational companies John deer, kessnew Netherlands, AGCO, KRAS, jiubaotian, etc; Second tier international brands: Yangma, Jingguan, daoizfall, gaudenni, apos, Minsk, Rostov, etc; There are also some special uses or small brands; The major changes in domestic brands in recent years are the continuous differentiation of the industry. At present, they have been divided into four levels. It is not easy to drag on the first-line brands such as Dongfang red, LoVo apos and Dongfeng Agricultural machinery. In fact, they are being hit by the fierce impact of new and sharp brands such as ward, Baili and Huaxia. The industry is undergoing a comprehensive disintegration from a stable state, There are also many new brands coming in, as well as eager and aggressive.

　　Domestic tractor industry has entered the stock stage from the incremental market. At present, the industry practitioners, complex competition pattern, and the huge changes of subsidy policy, are falling into greater uncertainty.

　　2、 To the dangerous world of stock killing!

　　What is the real situation of domestic tractor industry? Is the situation rendered by some media great and good, and we will get out of the dilemma in two or three years? The agricultural machinery industry is greatly affected by the policy. The sudden injection of powerful agents into the policies makes the industry turn around suddenly. However, the industrial law cannot be violated. The industry * * will return to the track to go. The current tractor has entered the stock market, but the situation is not so simple!

　　1. The stock market of the barrier lake is in urgent need of flood discharge

　　The basic characteristic of stock market is that the growth rate of the industry hovers around 5%, and there is a huge amount of social ownership.

　　In the stock market, the opportunity changes from the sale of new products to the value mining of the sold products. Only a large number of uses can give full play to the value of the sold products, and at the same time, the renewal and replacement can be accelerated. The number of small four wheel tractors is more than 20million, and that of large and medium-sized tractors (over 25 horsepower) is more than 5million, of which 60% of them are formed in five years, and the machine is in new condition, but the service time is very short.

　　In the stock market, the big problem of enterprises is to persuade users to willingly dispose of the old machines in advance. The so-called "old ones don't go, new ones don't come". At present, the subsidy policy is stable, the old machines are not disposed of, and the new machines are constantly purchased. What's more, the upgrading of products is very fast, and the performance of new machines is better and the price is declining continuously.

　　It can be said that the domestic tractor stock market is now a barrier lake, and it is urgent to solve the liquidity of the two mobile phones. Otherwise, the sales of new machines will decrease year by year. Since 2015, the sales volume of tractor industry has declined for three consecutive years.

　　2. Experiencing complex "three phase superposition"

　　In 2015, Premier Li Keqiang proposed that China's economy entered the "three phase superposition", and the tractor industry is also facing the difficulties of increasing speed shift period, structural adjustment pain period and early stimulus policy digestion period.

　　Increase speed shift period. The development speed of tractor industry has entered into a great wave from high-speed to rapid development. Like a train in high-speed industry suddenly decelerated from high speed to medium and low speed, the decline of speed will bring a series of problems. A series of contradictions hidden from the original speed development will be exposed.

　　The pain period of structural adjustment. For a long time, the main theme of domestic tractor industry is power up extension. In recent 15 years, the larger the overall horsepower is more popular, but in recent years, the demand structure of tractor industry has also undergone profound changes: first, the demand upgrading, specifically, users are more willing to buy high-end brands such as John deer and jiubaotian when changing new machines; Second, the number of tractors for special use such as Orchard tractor, king of shed and mountain tractor increased; After 2019, many northern provinces have greatly reduced subsidies for 180 and high-powered tractors, and the demand for middle wheel and tractor has begun to return. The above changes in demand will have a profound impact on the future development of the industry.

　　Stimulus policy digestion period. The subsidy policy of agricultural machinery is a double-edged sword. From 2004 to 2014, while promoting the development of agricultural modernization, it also causes demand overdraft, overcapacity, industrial abnormal development, user policy dependence, etc., while tractor subsidy lasts for a long time, and is greatly affected by subsidy policy.

　　"Three stages superposition" is a stage feature of agricultural machinery industry. How can tractor enterprises take action to break through the existing difficulties?

　　3. The old capacity is still high, and the new energy sources are injected continuously

　　In China, several major tractor industrial clusters, including Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Hebei and Anhui, have been formed, with about 200 complete machine production or assembly enterprises, of which, Shandong industrial cluster is * * large, with about 100 enterprises.

　　Figure: sales volume of domestic tractor industry over the years

　　According to experts, the total capacity of 200 large and medium-sized tractor enterprises is at least 600000. According to experts, China has the global * * large tractor capacity, but the sales volume of the whole industry is only 370000 in the peak demand period in 2011 and 2013. From the above figure, the demand of tractor industry has been on the decline since 2014, but the capacity is still increasing. If the total sales volume of 245000 units in 2018 shows that the capacity is idle to 35000 units.

　　The capacity has always been a dynamic data. For domestic tractor industry, by the first half of 2019, affected by the change of subsidy policy, although some large and heavy tractors have withdrawn from the market, the capacity of new medium and large horsepower tractors is still increasing. The old ones will not go away, and the new capacity will continue to inject into the market, which is repeated construction and low-end low-efficiency capacity, The direct consequence of overcapacity is the brutal price war of the same quality.

　　4. Multinational companies in the head Market monopolize and domestic brands are locked in the low-end market

　　The author mentioned more than once that, after 60 years of struggle, domestic tractors hesitated in the head Market: in 2018, agricultural machinery subsidy system was monopolized by foreign brands for over 250 horsepower. 260 horsepower 52 units are all sold by doizfall, and 3 products in 270 and 290 horsepower sections are all sold by John deer. 315 horsepower is the product sold by kesnew Holland company to Xinjiang Lihua cotton industry project. 320 horsepower is johndir and 340 horsepower 2 are products of AGCO.

　　In the head Market of 250 or more horsepower segment, one drag of famous brands such as Dongfang red and lovoa Persia have not realized one sales. It can be seen from various channels that a tow of Dongfang red, revoabos, katdir and Zoomlion Heavy Co., Ltd. have 250 horsepower, even 400 and 450 horsepower heavy tractors, but it can be seen from the subsidy system, The domestic heavy tractor has not been sold at all.

　　Overall, domestic tractor brands have encountered growing ceilings. The market of head market with more than 250 horsepower is whether there is a market or not, and domestic brands are locked in the middle and low-end markets.

　　5. Export business only has low-end output

　　Domestic tractors have no brand reputation, and the main competitiveness is product power. But at present, the product power of domestic large-scale tractors is still relatively weak. This strength needs to be cultivated for a long time and can not be achieved in one stroke.

　　According to the data of industrial association, the export volume of large trailers in 2018 is about 7500, mainly for tractors with less than 150 horsepower, that is, low-end products. Of course, it is more noteworthy that the export of 100 horsepower and above medium and high-end large trailers, 78.0% of them are foreign-owned products.

　　The total export of large trailers with 100 horsepower is 3500, of which more than 2700 are products of assembly plants established by AGCO and dill in China. The export volume of domestic enterprises with more than 100 horsepower tractors is less than 1000.

　　Figure: export product structure of domestic Drag Truck in 2018

　　3、 The winner can hold the pass to the future world!

　　From the analysis of the second part, we can see that the demand of domestic tractors, especially large and medium-sized tractors, is shrinking, the quantity of ownership is large, the capacity is seriously excess, the upgrading is in the ceiling and export is blocked. The whole industry has entered the dangerous world of stock killing!

　　So who can get out of the Red Sea competition and get the pass to the future world?

　　1. Fully recognize the cruelty and long-term nature of competition!

　　This industry has never lacked the optimist, nor the pessimist, but it has always lacked the foresight and rational person** In recent years, there are many people selling "fast wins theory" in the industry.

　　I have been engaged in the trend research of agricultural machinery industry for a long time. I believe that the domestic agricultural machinery industry has entered a long industrial adjustment period, and the industry situation will not turn over for a year or two. From 2004 to 2013, the tractor industry has experienced a full 10-year boom period, and has entered the next passage in 2014. At present, the industry is in a complex cycle of "three phases superposition", The industry is far from empty, and the industry is not at the bottom of the valley. In fact, the real shuffle period of the industry has not yet arrived. The beginning of this day may be the implementation period of country IV. The author thinks that the domestic tractor industry will still undergo a adjustment period of about 5 years. Until the net profit and inventory resources are digested, the industry will usher in a new round of growth cycle, But before this, the industry should have a long and difficult years, and enterprises should be fully prepared for the thought of lasting strategy.

　　2. * the winner is not necessarily a domestic brand or an expert!

　　Domestic tractor industry will experience a cruel elimination competition. It is naive if you think that domestic brands will be in the top position of the crown or the domestic agricultural machinery will successfully overtake the curve.

　　Smooth will not come, competitors will not give the crown throne, in fact, the future of domestic tractor industry is full of uncertainty, at least until now, we can not see that domestic brands have enough strength or absolute grasp to win the future war!

　　As mentioned above, among the players in the tractor head market, qingyishi is a multinational company, and the domestic brands are not in the flow. For the high-end market with more than 250 horsepower, the domestic brands are back attack, while the multinational companies are subdued. The difficulty is clear at first, that is, the difficulty of penetration and extension of transnational brands to the low-end market is much smaller, Multinational companies are likely to surround the low end market from the high-end market.

　　On the other hand, from the overall strength, the sales revenue of John deer, the world's largest * *, in 2017 was 29.738 billion US dollars, equivalent to 190billion yuan, kessnew Netherlands $26.668 billion, equivalent to 170billion yuan, jiubaotian $12.341 billion, equivalent to 82.5 billion yuan, while the domestic sales scale of Dongfang red, ward and Lovol were within RMB 7 billion, It is the odd part of the multinational big guy, not a level. Therefore, the domestic brands should fully realize the arduous and cruel nature of this round of hard fighting, * the winner is not necessarily a domestic tractor brand, and certainly does not exclude the benefits of cross-border looters.

　　3. Only domestic products can become the world's * *!

　　In the book "positioning in the 21st century", AI Rees thinks that the 20th century is the era from region to country, while the 21st century is the era from the whole country to the global. In the future, it belongs to the global enterprise. If only the national enterprises are still in the future, it will be likely to face a difficult failure. But to go global and become a global brand, one of the important bases of which is to achieve the first place in China and then to spread "China first" abroad, which is particularly important for domestic enterprises to move towards the world.

　　This concept is particularly applicable in the agricultural machinery industry. Tractor enterprises should be excellent enterprises with global competitiveness. Of course, they must first come to the first place in China or * * well. If we trace the development of several multinational agricultural machinery giants, we can find that johndir, Keith, NEWHOLLAND, jiubaotian, KRAS, Yangma and other top 6 multinational giants, They are the first or second in their own market, and up to now, the local sales income still accounts for at least 35%, such as 60% of John deer's sales revenue, 65% of the sales revenue of kubaotian, 70% of the sales income of keshenholland are created in the local or home market, that is to say, these excellent multinational companies are domestic * * excellent enterprises first, Second, the world's best enterprises.

　　Therefore, if domestic agricultural machinery enterprises want to be as large as John deer, keshenholland and jiubaotian, and even surpass these big Mac, they must first do the best in domestic market, and integrate the domestic market to turn the stock resources into their own incremental resources. In this way, after the stability of the rear, it is possible to attack the global market.

　　4. Technology and business models can completely subvert the competition pattern!

　　In competition, we focus on users and competitors. We call it demand oriented or competitive oriented, but we often ignore the power of technology and business model.

　　But the 21st century is a super technology era, many enterprises are subverted by the information technology mainly based on Internet and e-commerce. In the next decade, domestic tractor industry may not follow the previous rules of game. Super technology and high-tech business model may completely subvert the existing competition pattern. For example, the leader of electric tractor will make the core competition of powerful tractor enterprises driven by fuel driven machinery become worthless, such as unmanned driving under 5g technology