Five reasons for optimistic about the corn harvester market in 2020
Compared with other industries, the adverse growth performance of agricultural machinery industry under the impact of the epidemic situation has greatly pleased the industry. In the first half of the year, not only the scale of agricultural machinery industry has achieved a year-on-year growth, but also the profits of Enterprises above scale have reached nearly 40% growth. It is difficult to be valuable for large and medium-sized towed, wheel harvester, rice transplanter, plant protection UAV, ploughing and land improvement machinery Baler and other products have achieved market sales growth.
At present, with the arrival of "the third autumn", the sales mode of the second half of the agricultural machinery market has been fully opened. Among many products, corn harvester has attracted attention. How is the trend of the whole year's market changing, is it rising or falling? The author is more inclined to the former, and the prediction and judgment basis is as follows.
First, corn prices continue to be strong, which has a significant incentive to the harvester market.
Since this year, the international price of corn and other major grains has been strong. According to statistics, the closing price of corn in CBOT (Chicago Futures Exchange) has been up trend from April 28 to July 8, up 16.5%.
Domestic grain price performance also continued to improve. Statistics show that the CPI of grain in June rose to 1.57% year on year, a record of the duration since November 2017, of which corn price continued to rise. After the Spring Festival, with the improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control, the demand of downstream corn continued to warm up, plus the market's expectation of corn supply from loose to tight this year increased. Since March, the price has increased by more than 20%, In May, the purchase price of the main production areas in Northeast and North China rose to more than 1 yuan per Jin and 1.1 yuan respectively. Since the bidding sales of the national temporary corn storage was launched on May 28, the total turnover of 23.95 million tons has been completed for 5 weeks, with the transaction rate of nearly 100%, the average transaction premium of 170 yuan per ton, and the premium rate of more than 10%, which drives the corn market to continue to strengthen; In June, the average monthly wholesale price of domestic corn producing areas was 1.03 yuan per Jin, up 1.4% on a month basis, up 7.2% year on year, and 1.11 yuan per Jin in the sales area, 2.9% on a month basis, and 9.4% year-on-year.
The trend of corn price has a profound impact on the enthusiasm of users in corn planting and investment in agricultural machinery. For several years, the price of corn has been rising and falling. Not only can the income of growers not be guaranteed, but also the income from agricultural machinery operation can not reach the expectation. In addition, the social stock echelon is updated, the market of corn harvester has entered the period of consolidation and slow development. In 2015-2017, sales volume declined for three consecutive years, 2018 In 2019, there was a recovery growth, and only reached the market sales level in 2012. The main market demand gradually entered the level of market stock renewal.
Since this year, the domestic and foreign corn prices have been singing all the way, and the stimulation effect on the market of corn harvester will be very obvious, and the sales volume will be increased or become a big probability for three consecutive years.
Second, the mechanization of corn is still in progress, and the product renewal and upgrading are in the centralized period.
Corn, as the largest grain crop in China, is a crop with large planting area and high total yield. It plays an important strategic role in ensuring food security in China. Among the three major grain crops in China, the yield of corn is always low. In Hilly and plain areas, there are still artificial harvesting in many areas. According to the new statistics, the results show that the yield of corn is low, and the yield of corn is still low in many areas, according to the new statistics, In 2019, the yield of domestic corn machinery is 80%, and the non machine area is estimated to exceed 120 million mu, and there is still a large space for the rigid demand of corn harvesting machinery.
Looking back on the development of domestic corn harvester market since 2004, it can be divided into three stages:
The first stage, 2004-2011, the product and market cultivation stage. Driven by the national subsidy policy, domestic agricultural machinery R & D and manufacturing enterprises have entered the field of corn harvester. However, due to the relatively weak technical foundation, the overall performance of the products has the disadvantages of single function and insufficient reliability, at this stage, many types of corn bearing machine, wheat corn header exchange machine, self-propelled machine and other models exist at the same time, and the market echelon rises, The annual sales volume increased from more than 300 in 2004 to 15000 in 2011.
The second stage, 2012-2014, is the market explosion stage. With the completion of product and market accumulation, in 2012, driven by the promotion of subsidy policy, rigid demand, maturity improvement of two and three line small-scale machine products, the market sales volume of corn machine has achieved an explosive growth of more than 200% in 2012, which officially opened the door for the mature upgrading of performance and quality of corn machinery products, and the market sales volume has increased year after year, In 2014, the market sales volume was close to 80000 sets, reaching the peak of annual sales in the past 10 years.
The third stage, from 2015 to now, has been adjusted to slow down the normalization stage. Since 2015, the domestic corn harvester market has entered a three-year decline channel, which has made manufacturing enterprises in the industry difficult for a while. In 2017, the overall market sales fell to the bottom of the market since nearly 7 years. The market recovered in 2018 and 2019, but the growth rate was limited.
According to the service life of agricultural machinery products, the renewal cycle of corn harvester is generally about 5 years. From the development process of domestic corn harvester market, 2014, 2015 and 2016 are at the peak of sales for three consecutive years. More than 200000 corn harvesters entering the market are gradually entering the phase of elimination and renewal, and stock renewal is becoming the main force of market growth. Judging from the current market situation, the sales situation of northeast, northwest, Central Plains and hilly areas is optimistic. This year, the corn harvester market has been stable and has been up by several% and is expected to increase overall sales volume or exceed two digits in 2020, which is about 55000-60000 sets.
Third, the demand for animal husbandry and feed for warming up increased, which has a significant impact on the market of corn machinery.
From the perspective of the proportion of corn consumption structure, the feed consumption accounts for 65.6% of the absolute proportion, the proportion of industrial consumption is 30.9%, and the proportion of edible quantity is only 3.6%. It is enough to see that the development trend of animal husbandry and corn industrialization directly determines the trend of corn consumption.
With the change of people's living habits and the optimization of grain supply structure, the animal husbandry industry has become more and more prominent in China's national economy. Domestic animal husbandry industry has maintained a good growth trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total output value of animal husbandry in 2016 exceeded RMB 30000 million for the first time, and kept above 3trillion yuan in three consecutive years from 2017 to 2019. On February 17th, 2020, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the opinions on accelerating the development of animal husbandry mechanization, put forward the coordinated development of facilities and equipment and animal husbandry, and put forward the promotion of mechanization of major livestock breeding, key production links and large-scale farms (households). By 2025, the mechanization rate of animal husbandry will reach more than 50%, of which, the mechanization rate of large-scale dairy farming will reach more than 80%, the mechanization rate of pig, egg chicken and broiler will reach more than 70%, and the mechanization rate of large-scale beef cattle and mutton breeding will be more than 50%. The whole process mechanization of large-scale farms will be basically realized. Therefore, the domestic animal husbandry industry will have a promising future. Corn, as the main feed source, is worthy of the "king of feed", and also an important industrial raw material. The industrial products that corn can be processed can reach more than 3000, including alcohol, starch, starch sugar, denatured starch, enzyme preparation, condiment, medicine, chemical industry and other eight series. In recent years, it has also maintained a rapid growth momentum, The demand for corn is increasing.
Therefore, the above two corn application industries have developed rapidly, and the corn industry is good, which has a positive driving effect on the market of corn harvester.
Fourth, the maturity of corn machinery products has been improved, and the regional market sales have increased significantly.
After years of development, the overall maturity of corn harvester products in China has been greatly improved, and the localization of short board products has gradually achieved breakthroughs. The contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated. Especially for medium and small products, the operation reliability and adaptability have been substantially improved. Nowadays, all types of products covered by corn harvest are manufactured in China. In recent years, in large scale, grain type, and the production of short board products, the product quality of the products is improved The continuous breakthrough in stem and harvesting machines is effectively meeting the needs of diversified products of users.
Overall, the regional distribution of domestic corn harvester products has formed obvious characteristics, mainly in the following four points:
First, the demand for large-scale corn harvesting machinery and corn grain type is concentrated in northeast region, Inner Mongolia and other regions. This is directly related to the factors of large-scale corn planting area and higher drying level. The large-scale products are still mainly imported products, and the northeast region will still be the main market of imported products.
Second, the demand for small and medium-sized products increased, and the special demand models in mountainous and hilly areas increased. This is related to the poor consumption of farmers, and the products with fast input and output and high cost performance are favored. Whether it is the low hills and mountainous areas in the south, the Loess Plateau, the demand for small-scale machines in the northwest and central plains areas is still not reduced. Meanwhile, many mainstream corn machine enterprises have launched the corn machine model suitable for mountain operation in an all-round way, and the competition of this type will be more intense.
Third, the product types are diversified, and the related animal husbandry models such as stem and ear and harvest will be greatly favored. With the maturity of corn harvester products increased, the grain type, green food corn harvest type, traditional ear picking type and stem ear and harvest type are blooming everywhere. The overall performance is gradually improved and upgraded. Intelligent, comfortable and functional composite will be on a new stage.
Fourth, brand effect presents regional cognitive characteristics, and users' purchase will be more rational. With the advanced development stage of agricultural machinery industry, users have higher awareness of product brands and show distinctive characteristics of regional segmentation. Different brands have begun to build their own exclusive main camp in the segment market, and at the same time, consumers will be more rational in their consumption and purchase.
This year, the state has continued to focus on the promotion of mechanization of hills and hills. Governments at all levels have issued special support policies to effectively drive the special demand models suitable for regional operation conditions. Meanwhile, Huanghuai sea and the mainstream areas in the north are affected by the lower corn price, insufficient purchasing power of users and reduced investment enthusiasm, etc., and experienced 2017 After a sharp drop in 2018, the recovery began in 2019, and this year has been optimistic. Therefore, the multi-party factors facing corn harvester continue to be positive and the market sales increase is a big probability.
Fifth, the strategy of food security and the subsidy policy of national agricultural machinery purchase are driven.
China's corn industry has a profound strategic significance. Under the promotion of supply side reform, the planting area of corn has been steadily reduced since 2017/2018, and the domestic supply has decreased. In recent years, it has basically stabilized at about 260million tons, but the consumption in the same period has increased significantly. Due to the rapid increase of feed consumption and the release of deep processing capacity, The annual composite growth rate of corn consumption in recent three years is 9.7%. Corn continues to have a gap in production and demand. According to the estimation of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, considering the supplement of about 6million tons of imports to supply, the supply and demand gap of corn in 2019 / 2020 is still 11.55 million tons.
According to the global agricultural output report issued by the USDA, the global corn production is expected to decrease by 1.13% in 2019 / 2020, about 1.109 billion tons; Annual demand is 1.127 billion tons, with a gap of 18million tons; At the end of the year, inventory fell 5.83% to 301 million tons, with a stock consumption ratio of 26.7%, and corn inventory significantly higher than the safety line of 15%. The annual corn planting area in China is about 620million mu. According to the prediction of relevant domestic departments, the corn output is expected to be 254 million tons this year, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the previous year, and 5 million tons less than the average level in five years. In fact, this prediction is reasonable. Generally speaking, the first half of this year is basically smooth, but in the second half of the year, extreme climate such as high temperature, gale, strong rainfall and drought frequently comes. Rainstorm and gale occur in some areas such as Liaoning and Shandong, which makes corn flooding and lodging in the positive grouting period, and large-scale production reduction occurs.
This situation will affect the development of related industries in two dimensions. First, the reduction of production leads to loss of user income, the decline of purchasing power and the delay of investment intention of agricultural machinery; Second, it is very important to reduce the loss caused by disaster to a large extent through mechanized operation. Therefore, in the world food security is concerned, corn industry is directly related to the implementation effect of domestic food strategy. It can be predicted that a series of national support policies will be sustainable. Of course, subsidies for corn machinery are essential, and the market prospect of corn machinery has a strong policy support.
According to the development law of agricultural machinery industry, no matter how the market changes, * * the key points that determine the market share and the success or failure of competition will be focused on products. We cannot focus on the size of industrial dividends and market fluctuation. We should put products and customers first, and do well in technology and service, just like the domestic corn machinery market, the fluctuation and fluctuation are normal laws, As long as the products are too hard, they will not be afraid of competition. What is the performance of corn harvester market this year, it is worth looking forward to!