“Three key words ”understand cotton picker Market
As one of the main crops in the world, cotton has a wide range of uses and great economic value. It is not only an important fiber crop, but also an important oil crop, but also a food crop with high protein, textile, fine chemical raw materials and important strategic materials. At the same time, it is also an important honey source plant.
China's cotton planting area is about 3.33 million hectares (50 million mu), which is mainly distributed in Xinjiang cotton area, Jianghuai plain, Jianghan Plain, North China Plain, Northwest Shandong, Northern Henan plain and coastal plain along the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, of which the output of Xinjiang cotton area accounts for an absolute proportion. According to statistics, the comprehensive mechanization rate of cotton farming and harvesting in China is more than 70%, but the mechanical harvesting rate is less than 30%. However, the mechanical harvesting of cotton is mainly concentrated in the cotton area of Xinjiang, accounting for more than 99% of the total cotton mechanical harvesting area in China, which shows that the mechanical harvesting of cotton is almost realized in Xinjiang. At the same time, it also shows that the large-scale promotion of cotton pickers must be based on large-scale planting.
The first key word: humanization of province -- mechanization of cotton picking operation is imperative
Data show that the origin of cotton is India and Arabia. Before cotton was introduced into China, China had only kapok for filling pillows and mattresses, but no cotton for weaving. During the northern and Southern Dynasties, cotton was introduced into China's border; In the late Song Dynasty and early Yuan Dynasty, cotton was introduced into the mainland; In the early Ming Dynasty, Zhu Yuanzhang popularized it by means of coercion. At present, globally, China, India, the United States, Australia, Brazil, Turkey, Argentina, Uzbekistan and Egypt are the main cotton producing countries, of which China's single output * * is large, and Uzbekistan is known as the "platinum country".
As one of the crops with a long history, Europe, America and other countries have been very mature in the aspects of large-scale planting and popularization of mechanization. Mechanization has been realized in the whole process from farmland preparation to cotton planting, management, harvest, transportation and processing, and the cultivation and improvement of cotton varieties and agricultural standardization have been completed. Humanization and mechanization have greatly reduced the production cost, It effectively ensures the competitiveness of cotton in the international market. Especially in the cotton picking link, the world's major cotton producing countries have fully realized mechanization. On the contrary, the level of cotton machine harvest in China is very different.
According to statistics, the annual output of cotton in China exceeds 6.8 million metric tons. 24 of the 35 provinces in China have cotton planting, and nearly 300 million people participate in its production. With special seedling coverage, plastic film coverage and double cropping sowing of cotton and wheat, China continues to promote cotton production, making China a * * large producer in the world. However, due to the complex cotton planting management process, a lot of labor, lack of mechanization, informatization and intelligence, and high labor cost, the enthusiasm and confidence in cotton planting have been greatly reduced, and the cotton planting area has been reduced to varying degrees. According to statistics, the national cotton planting area in 2019 was 33392000 hectares (50088000 mu), a decrease of 152000 hectares (228000 mu) compared with 2018, a decrease of 0.5%, Moreover, the planting is further concentrated in the cotton region of Xinjiang, where the planting area is increased by 492000 hectares (738000 mu) over 2018, an increase of 2%. Affected by factors such as planting benefits and agricultural structure adjustment, the cotton planting area in other cotton areas decreased by 644000 hectares (966000 mu) or 7.5% compared with that in 2018.
In recent years, with the decrease of labor force and the sharp increase of labor cost, cotton production with manual operation as the main labor mode has encountered a bottleneck, and the contradiction of labor shortage has become increasingly prominent. Especially in the cotton picking link, in the past, Xinjiang corps alone needed more than 500000 flower picking workers every year. Every picking season, hundreds of thousands of flower pickers from other provinces successively entered Xinjiang to pick cotton, Thus, a seasonal labor transfer tide of * * in the West in the second half of the year is formed. The labor cost paid by Xinjiang production and Construction Corps alone is as high as 1.2 billion yuan every year.
There is no doubt that the * * effective way to solve the problem of "difficult employment and high cost" in the cotton industry is to realize mechanization, that is to say, "no one can do without people". For the link of cotton picking, the cost of manual picking is about 3 yuan / kg and the cost of mechanical picking is about 1.2 yuan / kg. At present, the yield of cotton per mu in China is about 350kg, Realizing mechanized cotton picking operation can reduce the cost of more than 600 yuan per mu, and the economic benefit and profit value are amazing. Therefore, realizing mechanized cotton picking is the only way for the development and progress of cotton industry, which is of great significance.
The second key word: technological innovation - domestic cotton pickers are constantly improving and upgrading
Related to the development of agricultural industry and planting structure, China's research on cash crop mechanization started late and developed relatively slowly. Since 2015, with the promotion of supply side reform, the domestic agricultural planting structure has been changing, the planting area share of traditional popular grain crops has been continuously transferred to cash crops, and mechanization has derived more new demand, It has gradually become a new force in the agricultural machinery market, and cotton picker is one of the typical representatives.
According to statistics, the scale of China's cotton picker market in 2019 was about 2.25 billion yuan, an increase of 22.8% year-on-year. This data was realized on the basis of the sharp increase in sales of domestic cotton pickers and the shortage of products in 2018. For the agricultural machinery industry in the stage of transformation and adjustment, many subdivided product markets have entered the downward channel, The performance of cotton picker market really brightens everyone's eyes. Cotton picker is an agricultural machinery equipment type with strong technical * * and high technical barriers * * in the whole process mechanization of cotton planting and production. The development level of cotton picker determines the development of the whole process mechanization of cotton planting. It has always been one of the weaknesses in the development of Agricultural Mechanization in China. More than 98% of the products in the market are imported products, and the breakthrough of localization has been achieved in recent years.
Statistics show that the United States was the first country in the world to start the research on cotton pickers. In 1850, it began the research on cotton picking machinery and machine cotton picking technology. In 1889, American inventor Campbell successfully developed the world's earliest spindle cotton picker. In 1942, the American cotton picker was put into mass production, and the mechanization of machine cotton picking was basically realized in 1964, In 1975, the degree of mechanical cotton picking in the United States reached 100%, and the technology of mechanical cotton picking and the number of cotton pickers ranked first in the world. The mechanized harvest rate of agricultural developed countries such as Australia and Israel has also reached 100%, and the absolute share of cotton in countries such as Spain, Bulgaria and Greece is also picked by machinery. China began to introduce and develop machine cotton picking technology in the 1950s, but the progress is not fast. In the research, development and application of cotton pickers, China focuses on Xinjiang for promotion. For a long time, the cotton pickers used in China are concentrated on the two brands of John Deere and case. Although the annual import quantity is not large, the overall value is not cheap. After entering this field, domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing enterprises have continuously broken through the technical barriers and localization problems of supporting resources. In 2107 / 2018, the domestic products are basically mature. Although the stability and consistency are slightly poor, the cost performance advantage is very obvious. From the perspective of subsidy system, the price of domestic brand cotton pickers is 1-1.25 million yuan for three row machines and 1.25 million-1.5 million yuan for five row machines, The price of 6-line machine is about 2.5 million yuan, which is more than 1 / 3 lower than that of imported products of the same model, and the price advantage is extremely obvious.
On the whole, the core technology of the cotton picker is the cotton picking system, the key component cotton picking head and the application of cleaning technology. In terms of harvesting methods, it can be divided into two types: selective harvesting type and unified harvesting type. The selective harvesting type is divided into vertical spindle and horizontal spindle. The cotton pickers of John Deere and case adopt a very mature selective harvesting type, However, due to the limitations of technical barriers and patent protection, other enterprises can only adopt scientific avoidance strategies. From the perspective of domestic cotton picker manufacturing enterprises, Xinjiang boshiran, Xingguang agricultural machinery, Dongfeng Agricultural machinery, modern agricultural equipment, Xinyan Co., Ltd., Shandong Swan and Chongqing Electromechanical group can produce three or more large self-propelled cotton pickers. The technical paths adopted by these enterprise brand products are different, such as Guihang 4mz-5, Donghua 4mz-3, 4mz-3a, Xingguang Zhenggong 4mz-3 Modern agricultural equipment 4mz-3 and boshiran 4mz-6 are picking and picking spindle type, while cotton picker products such as cmj3-i of Chongqing Electromechanical group are comb type, and light cotton picker products developed by Nanjing Institute of agricultural mechanization refer to brush type.
The rise of many domestic cotton picker brands has broken the monopoly of foreign products. After the sales volume of domestic cotton pickers exceeded that of foreign brands for the first time in 2018, the domestic share further rose to 72.0% in 2019. Although the products are becoming more and more mature, there are inevitably deficiencies in operation reliability, intelligence and stability, which still need to be continuously improved.
The third key word: for the better -- the market space of cotton picker in the next stage is not small
In recent years, the global cotton picker market tends to grow steadily. According to incomplete statistics, the number of global cotton pickers in 2019 is about 49800; The global sales volume of cotton pickers was about 4750, with a year-on-year increase of 18.8%; The sales revenue of the global cotton picker market was about 14.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%.
According to caamm statistics, the number of cotton pickers in China in 2019 was about 4850 (excluding micro cotton harvesting equipment), accounting for about 9.7% of the total number of cotton pickers in the world; In 2019, the overall sales volume exceeded 1000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 35.6%.
In recent years, the sales volume of three rows of cotton pickers in China has shown a rapid growth trend. According to the comprehensive statistical analysis of relevant data released by caamm and other institutions, in 2019, the sales volume of three rows, five rows and six rows of cotton pickers accounted for 66.6%, 8.2% and 25.2% respectively (only the first-hand new machine market, excluding imported second-hand mobile phones), and three rows of cotton pickers accounted for an absolute proportion. This structure is closely related to China's cotton supply structure. The output of Xinjiang accounts for more than 3 / 4 of the country's total output, and the total output of cotton producing areas in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin is less than 1 / 4, showing the characteristics of continuous expansion of cotton areas in the northwest and shrinking cotton areas in the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. At the same time, large-scale planting has been formed in Xinjiang cotton area, and the mechanical mining operation has been promoted rapidly; The cotton planting in the Yangtze River and yellow river basins is restricted by the dispersion of cultivated land and other factors. It is still dominated by the small production mode of farmers' individual operation. The degree of production standardization is low and the level of mechanization is low, which further increases the production cost.
In the promotion of cotton picking mechanization, we must comprehensively improve cotton varieties and promote large-scale planting. From a professional point of view, the requirement of base wood for mechanical harvesting is that the defoliation rate of cotton is more than 85% and the boll opening rate is more than 95%. At present, there are many varieties of cotton in China, most of which are different in height, late in maturity and not concentrated in flowering and boll opening. It is impossible to unify standards, unified production and unified management, and it is difficult to adapt to mechanical mining, which requires further improvement of cotton planting varieties. In terms of planting distribution, the planting outside the cotton area of Xinjiang is scattered, which is not convenient for the promotion of mechanized operation. It can be seen that there is still a long way to go to realize land intensive planting and management.
In the long run, China's mechanical cotton picking rate of less than 30% has a huge room for improvement. According to the National Guiding Opinions on accelerating the transformation and upgrading of agricultural mechanization and agricultural machinery equipment industry, the national cotton mechanical picking rate will reach 60% by 2025. The task is very arduous. At the same time, it can be seen that China's cotton picker market has a huge room for improvement. Not only that, Due to the large continuous working load of cotton picker in a short time, it is usually eliminated after 8 ~ 10 years of use. Therefore, the continuous increase of ownership will also drive the demand for renewal. It can be concluded that the incremental demand for cotton pickers in China will not decrease, and the renewal of the stock market will also enter a centralized period. According to the speculation of professional institutions, it is estimated that by 2022, the market scale of cotton pickers in China will reach 3.37 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of more than 15%. In the next few years, the maturity of domestic cotton pickers will become more mature, and the substitution effect for imported cotton pickers will become more obvious. The model share of main products is expected to develop to two ends, one is suitable for large-scale operation in Xinjiang cotton area, and the other is suitable for small-scale operation in scattered plots. At the same time, with the social stock of products and the renewal iteration, the cotton picker service and maintenance market will gradually develop and create a lot of industrial value.
In the process of agricultural mechanization, cotton production mechanization is facing good development opportunities. At present, domestic brands have shown good innovation. How about the future breakthrough and persistence? Can they catch up on the stage of global competition? There is no alternative but continuous innovation.