Analysis and forecast of China's agricultural machinery market in first half year of 2021
According to statistics, last year, China's agricultural machinery industry realized a main business income of 253.339 billion yuan, up 7.81% year-on-year. In the first half of this year, the agricultural machinery market showed a trend of restraining first and then rising, and the overall situation was better than in previous years. In the face of a good "first half", we still can't take it lightly. How to finish this year perfectly has become a new topic for agricultural machinery people. In addition, what are the market segments in the first half of the year? What fields are there this year? How to deal with the rapidly changing market? In response to these questions, the reporter interviewed Zhang Huaguang, director of the Secretariat of China Agricultural machinery circulation association. From his analysis, we may be able to find the answer.
Main models have rise and fall
According to statistics, 211300 tractors of various models were sold in the first half of the year, a slight increase of 4.71% year-on-year. Overall, China tractor still accounts for more than 70% of the proportion of large and medium-sized tractors, and the sales volume accounted for 75.96% in the first half of this year“ Whether the agricultural machinery market can continue the blowout market in 2020 this year mainly depends on whether the favorable factors of the agricultural machinery market last year can continue, and the fierce competition between the favorable and negative factors affecting the market trend this year. " Zhang Huaguang pointed out that due to the acceleration of structural adjustment of large and medium-sized trailers and other favorable factors, compared with negative factors, they appear relatively thin. It is expected that the probability of decline in the market of large and medium-sized trailers this year is very high.
Over the years, the competition in the harvester market has never stopped. At present, the market has entered the era of taking products as the king. Among them, the concentration of wheeled grain combine harvester is high. Among the top five brands, 19900 units were sold in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.99%, accounting for 83.61%. The market concentration of corn harvesters increased significantly. The top seven brands sold 95.24 million units, accounting for 85.99%, an increase of 10.33 percentage points“ The fierce market competition led to the intensification of the "reshuffle". More than 80 small brands with annual sales of less than 100 units fell 6.28% year-on-year in the first half of the year. " Zhang Huaguang pointed out that the crawler harvester market is also concentrated in the hands of a few enterprises. In the first half of the year, the six major brands sold 26500 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 23.83%“ In the third quarter, corn, rice and various cash crops successively entered the harvest season, which will form a market situation of "three arrows at the same time" and become the main driver of market growth. In the fourth quarter, the market entered the closing stage and will be in the off-season at the end of the year. " Zhang Huaguang predicted that the market will grow steadily, but the growth rate will be reduced.
In the first half of the year, the rice transplanter market showed a development trend of substantial growth and gradual optimization of market demand structure. By the end of June, more than 50000 rice transplanters of various models had been sold in China, with a significant year-on-year increase of 45.64%. Zhang Huaguang predicted that this year's rice transplanter market will still maintain good growth, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 80000, with a year-on-year increase of about 10%.
Special machines and tools are still in a period of market opportunity
"Animal husbandry machinery is a rapidly growing field. At present, China has sold 166200 animal husbandry machinery, a year-on-year increase of 100.97%. " According to Zhang Huaguang's analysis, the nine subdivided models of animal husbandry machinery showed a significant increase. Except for the substantial increase of grass cutter and livestock and poultry precision feeding equipment, other models soared. From the analysis of market demand structure, feed (grass) crusher accounted for 36.49%, accounting for 11.47%“ Through the analysis of the market trend of animal husbandry machinery in recent ten years, we judge that the current market is still in a period of development opportunities, and the structural adjustment direction of the market is large-scale high-end agricultural machinery, which is irreversible. This year, the market may enter the whole market period, and the sales volume is about 180000 units, with a year-on-year increase of no more than 10%. " Zhang Huaguang predicted.
In the past two years, driven by the policies of straw resource utilization and "grain to feed", the baler has entered the fast lane of development from the original low-speed growth. Last year, the market sales of balers increased significantly, with 36300 sets of various models sold, a year-on-year increase of 17.81%“ This year, as the market enters a periodic adjustment period and various national preferential policies will further focus on the agricultural machinery operation links and equipment fields related to food crops, the market sales of balers are expected to be about 36000 this year, the same as last year. " Zhang Huaguang said.
"Fruit and vegetable dryer is also facing good development opportunities." Turning to the reasons, Zhang Huaguang believes that at present, fresh vegetables can no longer meet people's living needs, and dehydrated vegetables begin to enter modern people's life more and more. In addition, the current subsidy policy provides packaging subsidies for dryers and other factors. Last year, China sold 88400 fruit and vegetable dryers, a year-on-year increase of 91.76%. The accumulated sales volume reached 1.056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.65%. This year's sales are expected to exceed 1.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of more than 10%.
Zhang Huaguang is full of confidence in the future. He said that looking forward to the medium and long term, the agricultural machinery market is facing good development opportunities. In the next three years, driven by the international and domestic double cycle, China's agricultural machinery manufacturing industry has the conditions of timing, geography and people to enhance its global competitiveness. The biggest change in the agricultural machinery market this year is towards structural adjustment.
Demand fragmentation, reduction and quality improvement is the trend
Last year's agricultural machinery market showed a momentum of rapid progress, but Zhang Huaguang reminded that this growth was not caused by the endogenous driving force of the agricultural machinery market, but more from the driving force generated by the concurrent factors of the epidemic“ At present, the agricultural machinery market is in a period of transformation, and the 'empty window period' formed by the transformation determines that the agricultural machinery market will be a low-speed development stage in the next 3-5 years. " Zhang Huaguang told reporters that we can still seize the opportunity to grow in the blue ocean. For example, when the three major grain crops basically realize the whole process mechanization, the mechanization of economic crops has become more prominent. For example, the planting or harvesting of vegetables, cotton, oil and sugar is the short board of agricultural mechanization. The foreign models introduced in China are expensive. Taking the green soybean harvester as an example, the price of an imported machine is as high as 1.2 million yuan. For such products developed by domestic enterprises, if the price is 600000 yuan, the profit margin is also very large“ Therefore, we expect that such markets will become the tuyere of the agricultural machinery market in the next few years. " Zhang Huaguang said.
The market demand is fragmented, and the reduction and improvement of quality will become a new feature of the future market“ For production enterprises, large enterprises should take the road of diversification, while small enterprises aim at specialization. " Zhang Huaguang pointed out that dealers should do a good job in the combination of high and medium-grade products, complete the transfer from the mass product market to the niche product market, and innovate the business and profit model, so as to realize the transfer from the original sales center to the service center.
"In addition, large-scale agricultural machinery that mainly solves the mechanization of field crops and small-scale agricultural machinery that mainly solves the mechanization of small-scale crops in Hilly and mountainous areas will be developed at the same time." Zhang Huaguang told reporters that large agricultural machinery mainly meets the rapid development of new business entities and the gradual expansion of agricultural scale operation. In addition, the promotion of conservation tillage and the promotion of subsidy policies will promote the development of large machines and tools. However, China's special natural environment also determines that small machinery suitable for hilly and mountainous areas will become an important trend of future development and a new engine of agricultural machinery market.
"There is no doubt that China's agricultural machinery market is ushering in the era of large-scale and high-end agricultural machinery. High end and intelligent agricultural machinery is a strategic place for China's agricultural machinery enterprises in the future. " Zhang Huaguang asserted that only by occupying the high-end position of the global value chain can domestic agricultural machinery have a dominant position in the international market. Only by developing intelligent agriculture and precision agriculture, such as positioning and navigation assisted driving technology based on high precision global navigation satellite system, can we form a prescription map according to crop growth and disease and insect pests, so as to control the flow of spray and achieve precise operation on demand, so as to form an important index of mark