2021 in the past, many changes in agricultural machinery industry in a year. The policy guidance, players and playing, users and demands are different. During this year, someone grabbed the opportunity to earn a lot of money. Someone losed a mess.In 2022 more and more people didn't have a chance to see the first sunshine.

　　　　Life is a constant battle, no matter how good or bad you do this year. It has become the ground to go, looking to the future may be more important, so how will the market of agricultural machinery in 2022?

　　一、 Macro Environment: The General Trend is Good, Small Changes are Difficult to Predict

　　　　Compared with 2020 and 2021, the year of 2022, China will  pay more attention to agriculture, rural areas and farmers work and the development of agriculture and rural areas, on December 10, has just been put forward in the end of the central economic work conference "To  improve the comprehensive agricultural production capacity in a more prominent position; to continue to promote the construction of high standard farmland and in-depth implementation of thee seed industry revitalization action,; to improve the level of agricultural machinery and equipment. To ensure the reasonable income of grain farmers.The rice bowl of the Chinese people should be firmly in their own hands at all times."

　　　　The central economic work conference pointed  out: On the one hand,a lot of important information  is a country attaches great importance to food security, the Chinese rice bowl of sweet in the hands of the Chinese. On the other hand food security is not strong, Still high external dependency, the figures show 2021 will import 15000 tons of food with an increase of about 30%. About 1/5 of the annual domestic grain consumption that is to say 20% of the grain imports, which shows there is a gap in the domestic grain supply of corn, soybean, sorghum and other categories. Soybean imports have long been the main, corn supply in the past three years has been less than demand, need to import to make up for the gap.

　　　　So it is expected that first,the state will increase the support of agricultural policies in 2022; second the food price will remain high even if demand exceeds supply; third, that the planting area of major crops will still increase against the background of high food prices.

　　　　The experience of the past 20 years, if the grain price is high in the previous year, the planting area of bulk crops will increase in the next year, and the increase of grain planting area will inevitably increase the demand for agricultural machinery and speed up the renewal of old agricultural machinery, so it is good for the agricultural machinery industry.

　　　　Overall  macro environment positive in 2022, Chinese government will  pay more attention to agricultural production. It will be a strong policy to improve food safety index, and will maintain stable food price up, which is beneficial to maintain the demand of the agricultural machinery,.On the other hand, the new COVID-19 outbreaks have uncertainty, punctate, uncontrolled will disrupt the normal rhythm of agricultural production, So the overall characteristics should be a good trend, small changes difficult to predict.

　　二、Policy Factors: The Subsidy Policy is Too Tight, The Emission of Primary 4 is No Longer Delayed

　　　　The agricultural machinery industry will be most affected by the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy and the national emission switching policy in 2022.

　　　　We are most concerned about the purchase of agricultural machinery subsidy policy. Compared with previous years, the 2022 subsidy policy has greater uncertainty, because  of press time, the 2021 subsidy system of some provinces in Northeast China has not been activated, while Heilongjiang  province is still cleaning up subsidy violations and subsidies, industry insiders said some of Heilongjiang's practices are likely to be replicated in other places. It also raises more concerns about subsidies in 2022.

　　　　Some things still can be sure such as for the "big horse-drawn cart", "big mouth set of little stomach" introduced by the behavior of the fringes of "K value" , baling room size requirements, etc., In addition, such as low technical content, big ownership proportion of agricultural machinery will lower subsidies and lower subsidies rules also can stick to it, this is certain.

　　　　The author speculates that due to the serious shortage of state subsidy funds in 2021, it is highly likely to increase the state subsidy funds in 2022, and Chinese govrnment will support and guide local matching funds. If the two measures are combined, the subsidy funds in 2022 will be relatively loose, and the overdue subsidy funds in 2021 and thereafter will be realized faster.

　　　　Another policy that will have a temporary impact on the agricultural machinery industry is the switch from Primary 3 to Primary 4. As we all know, the implementation of policies originally scheduled for 2020 has been postponed twice in a row. However, under the background of "carbon peak and carbon neutral", non-road emission policies will be firmly implemented. Not only will Primary 4 be implemented, but also Primary 5 may be implemented earlier.

　　　　Reference Primary 1 switched 2 Primary 2, Primary3 experiences, young before every switch when the farm machinery market will appear after the phenomenon of suppression, which is in the first half of the market will appear wave focus on sales of big, can appear in the second half of the first production enterprise production conservative, dealer the characteristics of the goods carefully, is expected in 2022 will have this feature.

　　　　Therefore, the annual operation success of agricultural machinery enterprises in 2020, especially power product enterprises, mainly depends on the work of the upper half of the year. If you can't grasp the first half of the year, you will lose the whole year. In addition, the production rhythm will be very technical, and there will be problems that can't be reported if there are more goods, and the market opportunity will be missed if there is less production.

　　　　On the whole, the policy level will have a great impact on the market of agricultural machinery in 2022. The subsidy policy for agricultural machinery purchase will continue the tight style of 2021, but the subsidy fund may be relatively generous. The emission of Primary 4 will not be delayed any longer, and has become an important factor affecting the marketing work in the first and second half of the year.

　　三、Demand Analysis: Grain Price Increases, Area Increases, and Income Increases

　　　　Agricultural machinery industry belongs to the middle part of the agricultural industry chain, so the decision of agricultural machinery market and upstream agricultural production and downstream user demand is closely related.

　　　　The direct factors affecting the demand for agricultural machinery include the development stage of agricultural machinery, the size of agricultural machinery holding, the income of agricultural machinery users and operators and other comprehensive factors.

　　　　To put it simply, the domestic agricultural machinery industry is the stock market at present. If we look at the time sequence, Tractors industry entered the stock market in 2013. The combined harvesters entered the stock market in 2014 and 2015, respectively, and then the small agricultural machinery and agricultural machinery and tools entered the stock stage successively.

　　　　The stock market is characterized by the renewal demand, with little new demand, so the main demand of 2022 agricultural machinery market is the renewal demand of tractors, combined harvesters, rice transplanters, planters and other categories of agricultural machinery.

　　　　Renewal demand is bound to not fluctuate greatly. The "legacy" of oversupplement in 2020 will still be the digestion period of early subsidy policy in 2022. Not only will there be little new demand, but also the renewal demand will be suppressed.

　　　　From the accrual aspect of machine hand, Mainly agricultural producers income and professional machine operators operating income, mainly say professional machine operators or agricultural machine service organization operating income.

　　　　The income of agricultural machinery operators in 2021 is characterized by polarization: For inter-district homework machinist earnings increase than normal, the reason is affected by the outbreak, flow out operation of agricultural machinery to reduce, much less machine, receive a price than usual have substantial this harvesting and planting and storing in  wheat harvest, autumn in rice, corn, their harvest, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang Autonomous Region cotton potato harvesting operations such as there is sufficient evidence.

　　　　In 2022, the price of Xinjiang machine cotton pickers rose to 180-200 RMB, while the previous year was only 120-150 RMB; On the other hand, in places affected by floods and repeated epidemics, such as Jiangsu  province in the southeast of China and Henan in the central of China.On the one hand, local operations were affected; on the other hand, local operators could not go out to participate in inter-regional operations, so they lost a lot of profits. Some operators owned machines did not work and  their machines  were  not out of the warehouse at all.

　　　　So overall, the current agricultural machinery industry entered the stage of the stock of social ownership. To update the demand is given priority to, so there will not be a big market. On the other hand, if the outbreak will not appear the transmission of large area, 2022 cross-zone operation can increase the number of machines, this contributes to the machinist to increase profits, but also to pull farm machinery sales, So it can be said that 2022 has a positive side in the stock market from the demand level.

　　四、 The Competition Situation: Accelerate Shuffle, Opportunist Ebb tide

　　　　Domestic agricultural machinery industry created the biggest change the competitive landscape. Overall look at the "Matthew effect" power began to emerge. The specific performance is the resources and market share to the big enterprise brand focused, and micro, small and medium enterprises situation is very bad, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are quit going to quit, decided to the development of the industry is still a hard power.

　　　　In 2022, such competitive characteristics will become more obviously, and the competitive strength of large enterprises will be further explained, while opportnists and small and medium-sized enterprises will leave in large numbers.

　　　　Specific see domestic enterprises such as LOVOL, YTO group, Jiangsu World Group will accelerate the development speed, the strength will further highlight; the share will increase; the domestic farm machinery industry into the era of big business and big enterprises competition. Industry is likely to be late. There will be a "three triopoly", "three kingdoms supremacy" of the competitive landscape, The struggle of these large enterprises is conducive to technological progress, technological progress and management upgrade of the industry, but "when the gods fight, the people suffer", a large number of small enterprises will become innocent victims and historical cannon fodder.

　　　　In addition, it is worth paying attention to the later development of multinational companies in China. On a global scale, China is the most stable country in terms of the epidemic, its supply chain is basically functioning normally, and of course the Chinese market is also the most stable.

　　　　Look from 2021 farm machinery exhibition in the world, Europe, America and Japan several well-known multinational companies to international market is a positive attitude, miss the will of the nation's 2020 John Deere high-profile to participate in the international agricultural machinery exhibition in 2021, due to the conservative John Deere, nearly two years to the case new Holland, multinationals such as love, according to Mr. Tao rare development opportunities, The absolute sales volume and market share of the above brands in the domestic market have achieved rapid development, and the situation forces John Deere to readjust its business strategy in China. It is expected that in 2022, multinational companies such as Deere, Case and Others will launch more active marketing policies.

　　　　Therefore, the market competition in 2022 will be more intense. On the one hand, there will be a competition for industry ranking among domestic big enterprises and brands, and on the other hand, there will be a competition for market share between international big brands and domestic powerhouses.

　　　　On the whole, the market competition in 2022 will be more intense than that of last year. The competition mainly lies in the exhibition among large enterprises. The competition between large enterprises is for industry hegemony, while the competition between large enterprises and small enterprises is for life and death.

　　五、 Category Analysis: Stock Market, Structural Business Opportunities

　　　　Finally, when it comes to categories and products, that is what will be the development trend of agricultural machinery segmentation industry in 2022?

　　　　The tractor industry is in a slump. "The only reason for depression is prosperity". The boom of 426,000 units in 2020 has overdrawn the market demand in the later two or three years. In fact, the overdraft of the demand of the tractor industry is not one or two years, but a process that lasts for 16 years. The "legacy disaster" in 2020 will affect the tractor market in 2022, plus the "K value", the double reduction of subsidy ratio and quota, Primary 4 switch and other negative factors.There are not many favorable factors for the tractor market in 2022.

　　　　Unevenness of cold and heat in combined harvester industry. Combined harvester market is more complex, the need for structural analysis.

　　　　Corn harvester category, corn harvester will be hot for another year, especially stem and ear corn harvester and grain direct corn harvester, 2022 will still continue the good market, caterpillar corn machine will still sell, rice machine should maintain stability and increase, hot sales for several years, although there is also a "spent force" suspected, However, the trend of strong substitution of caterpillar machine to wheat machine and corn machine will not change, so there will be the expectation of "the East is not bright and the west is bright", and wheat machine will remain depressed as always, unless World Group launches a strong offensive, or the enterprise finds a way to overcome the new technology of rice or launches a revolutionary new model.

　　　　Rice transplanters industry highlights in intelligence. Transplanters industry booming for several years, the industry is already in the worry, plus rice market price has been tepid, also affects the farmers grow enthusiasm, so expect the rice planting area doesn't increase, revaccination rate there will be no obvious change,in addition of harassment from live planting of the machine, Plant protection drones, so 2022 transplanters is not very bullish on the overall situation, However, intelligent rice transplanters should not be underestimated. After three years of promotion from 2019 to 2021, automatic navigation, auxiliary driving and unmanned rice transplanters have undergone market test and been accepted by organized users. At the same time, the technology has entered the stage of commercial application, so the author is optimistic about the market of intelligent rice transplanters in 2022.

　　　　Conclusion: the whole because of high food prices, planting area increased, operating earnings improve, and many other positive, will determine the stable environment of up 2022 farm machinery industry, but the outbreak of the new champions league, raw material prices, the bad and uncertainty factors such as 4 discharge switch also exists objectively, so agricultural machinery market in 2022 will be a big trend sure but little change.