The Only Reason for the Depression is Prosperity, 2023 Tractor Industry Will Usher in a Major Reshuffle
The famous economic cycle research expert Juglar's famous words: the only reason for depression is prosperity!
The special background of 2022 domesticTractor.The irrational prosperity of the industry is bound to produce a serious overdraft of market demand, 2023 tractor industry will really usher in a reshuffle, and is a policy reshuffle, technology reshuffle, capital reshuffle multi-dimensional, cross reshuffle.
For a long time, the domestic tractor industry in looking forward to this reshuffle, but also very afraid of the arrival of this day, but the coming will always come, after the reshuffle of the domestic tractor industry will usher in a real rebirth, only experienced the baptism survived the enterprise to be qualified to talk about the future.
1, policy reshuffle
Under normal circumstances, the power of the dominant industry should be technology and business model, so the industry reshuffle tools should also be technology and business model, but the domestic agricultural machinery industry has been the decisive force by the market to the policy, so the dominant domestic tractor industry reshuffle power has become the policy of the visible hand.
The biggest impact on the tractor industry in 2023 is the power of two policies, in a superposition of the momentum: one is the national four emissions policy, this one we all know very well, the national four tractors the biggest change is the cost increase led to the rise in the end retail price, which is in demand saturation tractor industry is snow, so is the most important factor affecting the tractor industry in 2023.
The second is the subsidy policy began to have a tendency. We all know that for a long time domestic agricultural subsidies policy has a quasi "universal" characteristics, whether the purchase of farmers, or production enterprises are treated equally, for the tractor production enterprises are almost no entry threshold, and all this in 2023 is very likely to change, because the agricultural subsidies policy introduced the factory audit this The pre-condition.
In order to better implement the "Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on the comprehensive promotion of rural revitalization in 2022 the key work of the views of agricultural machinery products "superior machine and superior subsidies" decision deployment, to promote the "State Council on strengthening the construction of quality certification system to promote the overall quality management of the views of" Play the voluntary certification 'pull up the line' role" of the implementation of the work, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Department of Agricultural Mechanization Management, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs General Station of Agricultural Mechanization actively promote the introduction of voluntary product certification of 200-220 horsepower wheeled tractors and upgrade the factory review work plan, and first commissioned Eastern Cam quality certification company to carry out the relevant certification and factory review implementation work. To this end, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the General Station of Agricultural Mechanization under the certification body Oriental Cam on July 20-22 to Weichai Lever Heavy Industries Co.
It is said that the brands that passed the factory review should get more subsidies than those without the review, first from the local pilot, and then extended to the whole country after maturity, and the first positive response was from Shandong Province.
Shandong Province, the latest release of the "Shandong Province," part of the "national four" emission standards of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies for the list of subsidies, "the national four 200 horsepower power wheeled tractors, through the factory conditions audit certification than not through the certification of 4370 yuan, including power shift increased by 2410 yuan.
This policy conveys an obvious signal, rely on the strength of the fight of the times, the policy will boost the tractor industry reshuffle, opportunists, fish in troubled waters to exit the field.
2, technology reshuffle
In the business world once and for all the competitors swept out of the means is technology. If you can be in the absolute leading position in technology, the enterprise will be in a relatively advantageous ecological position.
The last round of competition, the competition is the opportunity and the ability to use the subsidy policy, as well as cost control ability, but with the optimization of the policy, the opportunity to reduce and cost space compression, small business cost advantage will soon disappear, the domestic tractor industry will usher in the technology reshuffle and technology to stand up era.
Several technical means in 2023.
First, the emission standards upgrade. This point we know, but this policy is beneficial to large enterprises and small enterprises.
The second is the transmission technology upgrade. 2023 with the help of the national three to national four, a tractor Dongfang Hong, Weichai Lever and other domestic head enterprises will vigorously promote the new transmission technology tractor, is expected to assemble power shift, power shift, CVT transmission system tractor will really mass production and will quickly improve the supply, automatic gear instead of manual gear will be quickly completed, a large number of no technical reserves and new product development capabilities Small enterprises and small brands will exit, the shuffle of technology is "down-dimensional combat", with high-dimensional fight low-dimensional, low-dimensional no power to fight back.
Third, information technology means to promote the tractor machine technology upgrade. To automatic control, assisted driving, driverless combined with power shift, CVT technology, tractor is no longer a hardware competition, but information technology, software control system and intelligent technology competition, which is the system of engineering and systemic ability, not small enterprises three or five people carpet production method can solve, this is a higher dimensional technology reshuffle, only the strong strength of the head enterprises and This is a higher dimensional technology reshuffle, which can only be completed by enterprises with strong strength and intelligent technology, which are most likely to be cross-border high-tech enterprises such as Fengjiang Intelligence.
So 2023 is not only the national four upgrade so simple, with the national four technology upgrade in parallel with the transmission system, information technology, intelligent technology applications, these three technologies will be a ghost gate for small enterprises, after the pass, the fish into a dragon.
3. Capital reshuffle
After the opportunity competition, product competition, channel competition and brand competition, as the industry becomes more and more mature, the domestic agricultural machinery industry will surely usher in the stage of real strength competition.
In the face of great strength, the original tried-and-tested marketing skills and channel care will become worthless, and the head-to-head competition is positional warfare.
Once the tractor industry enters the positional warfare, it will test the comprehensive strength of enterprises, such as the comprehensive capabilities of production capacity, technology, service, management, team, brand and the most important capital strength.
At present, the top three domestic tractor industries are Yituo Dongfanghong, Weichai Leiwo and Changzhou Dongfeng, all of which are not single enterprises, and there are strong parent companies after the three companies.
The group company of Tuo Group is SINOMACH, the backbone of central enterprises, and the top 500 in the world; The group company of Weichai Wo is Weichai Co., Ltd., the largest power product manufacturer in China, with the largest global production and sales volume in 2022; Behind Changzhou is a powerful Donghua chain, ranking second in the global chain industry and first in Asia.
Besides the capital power behind it, the domestic tractor industry is also competing for the control of the capital highland. Tuo shares are listed in A shares and H shares, which is unique in the agricultural machinery industry. Weichai Leiwo is planning to split from Weichai shares to be listed separately, and it has been in operation for a long time. With its strong strength and outstanding performance, it is believed that it can successfully achieve IPO within two years. Changzhou Dongfeng is qualified for IPO, but the company will probably not take this road. Another noteworthy thing is the listing of Wode, and Wode agricultural machinery that sprints several times in a row can also be listed successfully. In addition, there are several powerful schools.
After the listing of Chaileiwo and Wode Agricultural Machinery, together with the previous Yituo shares, Xingguang Agricultural Machinery, Xinyan shares, Jifeng Agricultural Machinery, etc., the domestic agricultural machinery industry will truly have a cluster of listed companies with agricultural machinery as the theme, and it will probably be a powerful capital force to promote the progress of the industry.
Conclusion: The tractor industry will usher in a new development period in 2023. Three forces: policy reshuffle, technology reshuffle and capital reshuffle will be applied to the tractor industry in a multi-dimensional and cross-cutting way. The industry will usher in the long-awaited integration era, and those who can stand the test of the times will turn fish into dragons and soar.